11-7, 3.34 ERA
14-8, 3.76 ERA
| Model fair | DraftKings | Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW ML | +155 | +118 | +130 | +130 |
| CLE ML | -155 | -142 | -130 | -130 |
| CLE -1.5 | +124 | +158 | — | — |
| Model | Model fair | Kalshi | Kalshi odds | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW leads | 32.2% | +211 | 37.7% | +165 | -5.5pp |
| Tied | 16.2% | +519 | 17.6% | +469 | -1.4pp |
| CLE leads | 51.7% | -107 | 44.7% | +124 | +6.9pp |
Why the Guardians. Don't read too much into the surface numbers on the mound — Gavin Williams (3.76 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 248 K) has a better underlying profile than his ERA suggests, and we like him more than Sean Burke (3.34 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) tonight. Over the full body of work, the Guardians (85-77) grade out as the stronger club than the White Sox (84-78). The Guardians' lineup sets up well for this matchup, with its contact and plate discipline playing up tonight.
The case for the White Sox. The White Sox's relievers have the right stuff for this Guardians lineup — the pitch-mix matchup runs their way late.
Notes. Chicago White Sox note — Sean Burke: White Sox manager Will Venable said Friday that Burke will start Saturday in Game 5 of the ALDS versus the Guardians, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports. Cleveland Guardians note — Gavin Williams: Williams will start Game 5 of the ALDS versus the White Sox on Saturday, Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports.
| Pitcher | ERA | WHIP | SO | G | SV | Last pitched |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Newcomb | 3.09 | 1.18 | 84 | 60 | 4 | 13d ago |
| Jordan Hicks | 3.94 | 1.54 | 64 | 53 | 1 | 14d ago |
| Anthony Kay | 4.44 | 1.37 | 129 | 33 | 0 | 13d ago |
| Bryan Hudson | 3.74 | 1.28 | 59 | 70 | 8 | 14d ago |
| Grant Taylor | 2.25 | 1.07 | 106 | 60 | 10 | 15d ago |
| David Sandlin | 5.58 | 1.21 | 40 | 8 | 0 | 16d ago |
| Davis Martin | 3.95 | 1.32 | 122 | 29 | 0 | 14d ago |
| Tyler Davis | 3.66 | 1.16 | 27 | 31 | 1 | 14d ago |
| Noah Schultz | 5.57 | 1.33 | 67 | 19 | 0 | 14d ago |
| Hagen Smith | 1.29 | 0.96 | 41 | 18 | 0 | 15d ago |
| Erick Fedde | 3.83 | 1.35 | 99 | 33 | 0 | 17d ago |
| Pitcher | ERA | WHIP | SO | G | SV | Last pitched |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Espino | 4.11 | 1.24 | 25 | 14 | 0 | 15d ago |
| Matt Festa | 3.78 | 1.31 | 69 | 66 | 1 | 15d ago |
| Erik Sabrowski | 2.61 | 1.18 | 76 | 60 | 1 | 15d ago |
| Tim Herrin | 3.02 | 1.31 | 54 | 67 | 0 | 15d ago |
| Shawn Armstrong | 4.58 | 1.39 | 34 | 41 | 0 | 14d ago |
| Hunter Gaddis | 2.98 | 1.28 | 57 | 68 | 1 | 15d ago |
| Joey Cantillo | 3.62 | 1.42 | 171 | 33 | 0 | 16d ago |
| Cade Smith | 1.95 | 0.96 | 107 | 69 | 41 | 14d ago |
| Tanner Bibee | 4.36 | 1.22 | 148 | 33 | 0 | 14d ago |
| Foster Griffin | 3.60 | 1.21 | 158 | 31 | 0 | 17d ago |
| Parker Messick | 2.56 | 1.06 | 193 | 32 | 0 | 13d ago |
| Batter | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Antonacci LF | .277 | 8 | 48 | .766 |
| 2 | Kyle Teel C | .210 | 5 | 26 | .697 |
| 3 | Miguel Vargas 3B | .250 | 33 | 93 | .837 |
| 4 | Munetaka Murakami 1B | .207 | 35 | 77 | .825 |
| 5 | Andrew Benintendi DH | .240 | 15 | 78 | .715 |
| 6 | Tristan Peters CF | .265 | 12 | 56 | .774 |
| 7 | Kyle Teel C | .210 | 5 | 26 | .697 |
| 8 | Chase Meidroth 2B | .276 | 16 | 63 | .765 |
| 9 | Colson Montgomery SS | .197 | 31 | 87 | .685 |
| Batter | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steven Kwan CF | .282 | 3 | 32 | .731 |
| 2 | José Ramírez 3B | .235 | 12 | 53 | .688 |
| 3 | Chase DeLauter RF | .287 | 16 | 67 | .820 |
| 4 | Jo Adell DH | .240 | 23 | 94 | .699 |
| 5 | Nathaniel Lowe 1B | .252 | 17 | 64 | .761 |
| 6 | Angel Martínez LF | .254 | 18 | 62 | .755 |
| 7 | Travis Bazzana 2B | .245 | 15 | 57 | .743 |
| 8 | Patrick Bailey C | .206 | 10 | 37 | .607 |
| 9 | Brayan Rocchio SS | .253 | 15 | 73 | .704 |