12-9, 2.56 ERA
3-3, 1.29 ERA
| Model fair | DraftKings | Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE ML | +101 | -115 | -106 | -106 |
| CHW ML | -101 | -105 | +106 | +106 |
| CHW +1.5 | -152 | -185 | — | — |
| Model | Model fair | Kalshi | Kalshi odds | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE leads | 42.1% | +137 | 43.3% | +131 | -1.1pp |
| Tied | 15.5% | +545 | 17.4% | +474 | -1.9pp |
| CHW leads | 42.3% | +136 | 39.3% | +154 | +3.0pp |
The case for the Guardians. The Guardians bring the deeper lineup — tonight's nine average a .723 OPS against .721 for the White Sox. Don't read too much into the surface numbers on the mound — Parker Messick (2.56 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 193 K) has a better underlying profile than his ERA suggests, and we like him more than Hagen Smith (1.29 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) tonight.
Notes. Lineup buzz for Chicago White Sox: B. Montgomery now expected in tonight's lineup. Cleveland Guardians note — Foster Griffin: Griffin didn't factor into the decision in Game 3 of the ALDS against the White Sox on Wednesday, giving up a run on two hits with seven strikeouts and no walks over 2.2 innings. Chicago White Sox note — Hagen Smith: Smith will serve as the opener Thursday in Game 4 of the ALDS against the Guardians, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports. Chicago White Sox are going with a bullpen game: Erick Fedde is lined up for the bulk innings behind opener Hagen Smith, so the relief matchup matters more than usual here.
| Pitcher | ERA | WHIP | SO | G | SV | Last pitched |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Sabrowski | 2.61 | 1.18 | 76 | 60 | 1 | 13d ago |
| Matt Festa | 3.78 | 1.31 | 69 | 66 | 1 | 13d ago |
| Tim Herrin | 3.02 | 1.31 | 54 | 67 | 0 | 13d ago |
| Shawn Armstrong | 4.58 | 1.39 | 34 | 41 | 0 | 12d ago |
| Cade Smith | 1.95 | 0.96 | 107 | 69 | 41 | 12d ago |
| Daniel Espino | 4.11 | 1.24 | 25 | 14 | 0 | 13d ago |
| Hunter Gaddis | 2.98 | 1.28 | 57 | 68 | 1 | 13d ago |
| Joey Cantillo | 3.62 | 1.42 | 171 | 33 | 0 | 14d ago |
| Tanner Bibee | 4.36 | 1.22 | 148 | 33 | 0 | 12d ago |
| Foster Griffin | 3.60 | 1.21 | 158 | 31 | 0 | 15d ago |
| Gavin Williams | 3.76 | 1.11 | 248 | 32 | 0 | 13d ago |
| Pitcher | ERA | WHIP | SO | G | SV | Last pitched |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Hicks | 3.94 | 1.54 | 64 | 53 | 1 | 12d ago |
| Anthony Kay | 4.44 | 1.37 | 129 | 33 | 0 | 11d ago |
| Grant Taylor | 2.25 | 1.07 | 106 | 60 | 10 | 13d ago |
| Erick Fedde BULK | 3.83 | 1.35 | 99 | 33 | 0 | 15d ago |
| Tyler Davis | 3.66 | 1.16 | 27 | 31 | 1 | 12d ago |
| Bryan Hudson | 3.74 | 1.28 | 59 | 70 | 8 | 12d ago |
| David Sandlin | 5.58 | 1.21 | 40 | 8 | 0 | 14d ago |
| Sean Newcomb | 3.09 | 1.18 | 84 | 60 | 4 | 11d ago |
| Davis Martin | 3.95 | 1.32 | 122 | 29 | 0 | 12d ago |
| Sean Burke | 3.34 | 1.20 | 185 | 32 | 0 | 13d ago |
| Noah Schultz | 5.57 | 1.33 | 67 | 19 | 0 | 12d ago |
| Batter | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steven Kwan CF | .282 | 3 | 32 | .731 |
| 2 | José Ramírez 3B | .235 | 12 | 53 | .688 |
| 3 | Chase DeLauter RF | .287 | 16 | 67 | .820 |
| 4 | Jo Adell DH | .240 | 23 | 94 | .699 |
| 5 | Nathaniel Lowe 1B | .252 | 17 | 64 | .761 |
| 6 | Angel Martínez LF | .254 | 18 | 62 | .755 |
| 7 | Travis Bazzana 2B | .245 | 15 | 57 | .743 |
| 8 | Patrick Bailey C | .206 | 10 | 37 | .607 |
| 9 | Brayan Rocchio SS | .253 | 15 | 73 | .704 |
| Batter | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miguel Vargas 3B | .250 | 33 | 93 | .837 |
| 2 | Tommy Pham DH | .100 | 1 | 3 | .429 |
| 3 | Randal Grichuk LF | .287 | 15 | 46 | .880 |
| 4 | Munetaka Murakami 1B | .207 | 35 | 77 | .825 |
| 5 | Chase Meidroth 2B | .276 | 16 | 63 | .765 |
| 6 | Brenton Doyle CF | .233 | 6 | 16 | .637 |
| 7 | Kyle Teel C | .210 | 5 | 26 | .697 |
| 8 | Randal Grichuk LF | .287 | 15 | 46 | .880 |
| 9 | Luisangel Acuña SS | .229 | 2 | 13 | .537 |