Tonight's Slate

Why the Phillies. Don't read too much into the surface numbers on the mound — Aaron Nola (4.67 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 177 K) has a better underlying profile than his ERA suggests, and we like him more than Grant Holmes (3.44 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) tonight. The Phillies' lineup sets up well for this matchup, with its contact and plate discipline playing up tonight. The Phillies come in playing the better recent baseball, on both sides of the ball.

The case for the Braves. The late innings tilt toward the Braves, whose available relievers carry a 2.84 ERA against 3.56 for the Phillies.

Notes. Philadelphia Phillies note — Aaron Nola: Nola will start Thursday in Game 3 of the wild-card series in Atlanta, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports. Atlanta Braves note — Tyler Mahle: Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said after Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series against the Phillies on Wednesday that Mahle suffered an abdominal injury while warming up and nearly didn't start as scheduled, Grant McAuley... Bryce Harper is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .220 — .290 wOBA vs. a .397 season mark. Matt Olson is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .194 — .211 wOBA vs. a .391 season mark. Atlanta Braves are going with a bullpen game: Grant Holmes is lined up for the bulk innings behind opener Grant Holmes, so the relief matchup matters more than usual here.