14-9, 2.53 ERA
14-9, 2.16 ERA
| Model fair | DraftKings | Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD ML | -123 | -115 | +102 | -102 |
| ATL ML | +123 | -105 | -102 | +102 |
| ATL +1.5 | -120 | -185 | — | — |
| Model | Model fair | Kalshi | Kalshi odds | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD leads | 40.2% | +149 | 38.5% | +159 | +1.7pp |
| Tied | 16.2% | +516 | 20.0% | +400 | -3.8pp |
| ATL leads | 43.6% | +130 | 41.5% | +141 | +2.1pp |
Why the Dodgers. Over the full body of work, the Dodgers (100-62) grade out as the stronger club than the Braves (94-68). The Dodgers' relievers have the right stuff for this Braves lineup — the pitch-mix matchup runs their way late. The late innings tilt toward the Dodgers, whose available relievers carry a 3.33 ERA against 3.40 for the Braves.
The case for the Braves. The edge on the mound belongs to the Braves: Chris Sale (2.16 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 200 K) has been the better arm than Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.53 ERA, 0.87 WHIP).
Notes. Lineup buzz for Los Angeles Dodgers: T. Hernandez now expected in tonight's lineup. Los Angeles Dodgers note — Blake Snell: Snell didn't factor in the decision in Game 2 of the NLDS against Atlanta on Sunday. He gave up a run on three hits with five strikeouts and five walks over 3.2 innings. Atlanta Braves note — Michael Harris: Harris went 3-for-5 with a double, a triple, one RBI and one run in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Dodgers on Sunday. Atlanta Braves' starter has looked sharper lately — missing more bats over his last 3 starts (36.6% called-strike+whiff rate, vs. 31.7% on the season). Freddie Freeman is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .225 — .263 wOBA vs. a .389 season mark. Will Smith is running hot over his last 10 games, batting .343 — .449 wOBA vs. a .376 season mark. Matt Olson is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .171 — .245 wOBA vs. a .390 season mark. Drake Baldwin is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .250 — .318 wOBA vs. a .393 season mark.
| Pitcher | ERA | WHIP | SO | G | SV | Last pitched |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Vesia | 2.64 | 1.07 | 74 | 72 | 3 | 9d ago |
| Tanner Scott | 2.69 | 0.99 | 82 | 69 | 25 | 10d ago |
| Edwin Díaz | 8.68 | 1.98 | 28 | 21 | 7 | 9d ago |
| Edgardo Henriquez | 2.85 | 1.03 | 71 | 61 | 2 | 23d ago |
| Evan Phillips | 3.46 | 1.08 | 33 | 31 | 1 | 9d ago |
| Brock Stewart | 2.70 | 1.01 | 25 | 28 | 1 | 10d ago |
| Kris Bubic | 3.76 | 1.20 | 56 | 14 | 0 | 10d ago |
| Roki Sasaki | 4.49 | 1.32 | 123 | 26 | 0 | 9d ago |
| Tyler Glasnow | 3.53 | 0.95 | 98 | 13 | 0 | 11d ago |
| Blake Snell | 1.90 | 1.10 | 55 | 9 | 0 | 10d ago |
| Tarik Skubal | 2.72 | 0.96 | 186 | 26 | 0 | 10d ago |
| Pitcher | ERA | WHIP | SO | G | SV | Last pitched |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Mederos | 3.41 | 1.19 | 34 | 30 | 1 | 10d ago |
| Robert Suarez | 1.06 | 0.88 | 26 | 33 | 4 | 10d ago |
| Raisel Iglesias | 2.55 | 1.08 | 64 | 59 | 34 | 10d ago |
| Dylan Lee | 3.09 | 0.97 | 77 | 71 | 0 | 10d ago |
| Brent Suter | 3.36 | 1.22 | 78 | 54 | 0 | 10d ago |
| Dylan Dodd | 2.54 | 0.91 | 53 | 48 | 2 | 10d ago |
| JR Ritchie | 4.91 | 1.47 | 68 | 17 | 1 | 9d ago |
| Grant Holmes | 3.44 | 1.31 | 115 | 31 | 0 | 10d ago |
| AJ Smith-Shawver | 6.61 | 1.53 | 27 | 9 | 0 | 9d ago |
| Didier Fuentes | 2.45 | 1.10 | 92 | 58 | 3 | 10d ago |
| Ray Kerr | 1.47 | 0.60 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 10d ago |
| Tyler Mahle | 3.99 | 1.23 | 137 | 27 | 0 | 11d ago |
| Batter | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani DH | .275 | 30 | 81 | .889 |
| 2 | Mookie Betts SS | .257 | 23 | 69 | .780 |
| 3 | Freddie Freeman 1B | .288 | 16 | 70 | .792 |
| 4 | Will Smith C | .260 | 10 | 34 | .781 |
| 5 | Max Muncy 3B | .252 | 29 | 76 | .838 |
| 6 | Kyle Tucker RF | .233 | 17 | 70 | .715 |
| 7 | Andy Pages CF | .274 | 23 | 85 | .811 |
| 8 | Andy Pages CF | .274 | 23 | 85 | .811 |
| 9 | Tommy Edman 2B | .247 | 8 | 42 | .714 |
| Batter | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Harris II CF | .294 | 26 | 87 | .812 |
| 2 | Ronald Acuña Jr. RF | .255 | 20 | 55 | .796 |
| 3 | Matt Olson 1B | .251 | 41 | 93 | .823 |
| 4 | Drake Baldwin DH | .284 | 25 | 79 | .817 |
| 5 | Mauricio Dubón SS | .276 | 12 | 73 | .720 |
| 6 | Ozzie Albies 2B | .237 | 22 | 73 | .685 |
| 7 | Mike Yastrzemski LF | .224 | 12 | 41 | .689 |
| 8 | Austin Riley 3B | .219 | 19 | 72 | .654 |
| 9 | Sean Murphy C | .182 | 3 | 10 | .556 |