7-12, 4.67 ERA
0-0, 1.47 ERA
| Model fair | DraftKings | Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI ML | +106 | -108 | +102 | +102 |
| ATL ML | -106 | -111 | -102 | -102 |
| ATL +1.5 | -159 | -197 | — | — |
| Model | Model fair | Kalshi | Kalshi odds | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI leads | 39.4% | +154 | 44.3% | +126 | -4.9pp |
| Tied | 16.0% | +524 | 17.4% | +474 | -1.4pp |
| ATL leads | 44.6% | +124 | 38.3% | +161 | +6.3pp |
Why the Braves. The late innings tilt toward the Braves, whose available relievers carry a 2.97 ERA against 3.56 for the Phillies.
The case for the Phillies. The Phillies' lineup sets up well for this matchup, with its contact and plate discipline playing up tonight. The Phillies come in playing the better recent baseball, on both sides of the ball.
Notes. Philadelphia Phillies note — Brandon Marsh: Marsh is absent from the lineup Thursday in Game 3 of the wild-card series versus Atlanta. Atlanta Braves note — Ha-Seong Kim: Kim is not in the lineup for Thursday's Game 3 of the wild-card series against the Phillies. Bryce Harper is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .220 — .290 wOBA vs. a .397 season mark. Matt Olson is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .194 — .211 wOBA vs. a .391 season mark. Michael Harris II is running hot over his last 10 games, batting .400 — .462 wOBA vs. a .387 season mark. Atlanta Braves are going with a bullpen game: Grant Holmes is lined up for the bulk innings behind opener Ray Kerr, so the relief matchup matters more than usual here.
| Pitcher | ERA | WHIP | SO | G | SV | Last pitched |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Mayza | 3.48 | 1.13 | 64 | 60 | 0 | 6d ago |
| Chase Shugart | 4.02 | 1.17 | 59 | 46 | 0 | 5d ago |
| José Alvarado | 5.86 | 1.65 | 70 | 68 | 1 | 5d ago |
| Jonathan Bowlan | 3.36 | 1.03 | 73 | 59 | 2 | 14d ago |
| Tanner Banks | 6.19 | 1.84 | 38 | 32 | 0 | 5d ago |
| Jhoan Duran | 1.82 | 0.99 | 84 | 61 | 33 | 4d ago |
| Alex McFarlane | 2.84 | 1.16 | 20 | 19 | 0 | 4d ago |
| Andrew Painter | 5.40 | 1.41 | 115 | 25 | 0 | 7d ago |
| Jesús Luzardo | 2.86 | 1.07 | 221 | 30 | 0 | 4d ago |
| Zack Wheeler | 3.00 | 1.05 | 193 | 28 | 0 | 4d ago |
| Cristopher Sánchez | 2.91 | 1.20 | 231 | 33 | 0 | 6d ago |
| Pitcher | ERA | WHIP | SO | G | SV | Last pitched |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Suarez | 1.06 | 0.88 | 26 | 33 | 4 | 5d ago |
| Dylan Dodd | 2.54 | 0.91 | 53 | 48 | 2 | 5d ago |
| Victor Mederos | 3.41 | 1.19 | 34 | 30 | 1 | 5d ago |
| Grant Holmes BULK | 3.44 | 1.31 | 115 | 31 | 0 | 6d ago |
| Brent Suter | 3.36 | 1.22 | 78 | 54 | 0 | 5d ago |
| Raisel Iglesias | 2.55 | 1.08 | 64 | 59 | 34 | 5d ago |
| Dylan Lee | 3.09 | 0.97 | 77 | 71 | 0 | 5d ago |
| Didier Fuentes | 2.45 | 1.10 | 92 | 58 | 3 | 6d ago |
| Chris Sale | 2.16 | 0.98 | 200 | 27 | 0 | 8d ago |
| Tyler Mahle | 3.99 | 1.23 | 137 | 27 | 0 | 7d ago |
| Batter | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trea Turner SS | .242 | 19 | 58 | .675 |
| 2 | Kyle Schwarber DH | .232 | 45 | 97 | .857 |
| 3 | Bryce Harper RF | .269 | 29 | 87 | .865 |
| 4 | Alec Bohm 1B | .249 | 15 | 88 | .698 |
| 5 | Bryson Stott 2B | .256 | 10 | 67 | .735 |
| 6 | Bryan De La Cruz LF | .280 | 2 | 12 | .762 |
| 7 | Edmundo Sosa 3B | .247 | 9 | 44 | .712 |
| 8 | J.T. Realmuto C | .205 | 11 | 51 | .614 |
| 9 | Justin Crawford CF | .264 | 3 | 41 | .662 |
| Batter | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Baldwin C | .284 | 25 | 79 | .817 |
| 2 | Ronald Acuña Jr. RF | .255 | 20 | 55 | .796 |
| 3 | Matt Olson 1B | .251 | 41 | 93 | .823 |
| 4 | Michael Harris II CF | .294 | 26 | 87 | .812 |
| 5 | Mauricio Dubón SS | .276 | 12 | 73 | .720 |
| 6 | Mike Yastrzemski LF | .224 | 12 | 41 | .689 |
| 7 | Austin Riley 3B | .219 | 19 | 72 | .654 |
| 8 | Ozzie Albies 2B | .237 | 22 | 73 | .685 |
| 9 | Dominic Smith DH | .253 | 9 | 46 | .694 |