Model projections, compared against the market

Tonight's Slate

October 1, 2026 — projected margins and win probabilities for every game, checked against DraftKings, Polymarket, and Kalshi. Updated Oct 1, 12:08 PM CT.
1Games
0Strong leans
0Moderate leans
1Toss-ups
7:00 PM CT
NL Wild Card 'A' Game 3
Truist Park
Philadelphia Phillies
88-74
Aaron Nola
7-12, 4.67 ERA
@
Atlanta Braves
94-68
Ray Kerr
0-0, 1.47 ERA
Projected margin
ATL -0.2 · PHI +0.2
Model fair odds
PHI +106 · ATL -106
Model Suggests Lean · 51.5%
Moneyline (Kalshi): Atlanta Braves (KA -102) — model 51.5% vs. devigged market 50.5% (+1.0pp edge)
Model vs. Market DraftKings, Polymarket, Kalshi · current line
Model fairDraftKingsPolymarketKalshi
PHI ML+106 -111 -102 +102
ATL ML-106 -108 +102 -102
ATL +1.5-159-193——
First 5 innings Kalshi · current line · devigged · model projects ATL +0.0 thru 5
ModelModel fairKalshiKalshi oddsEdge
PHI leads38.2%+16244.8%+123-6.6pp
Tied16.1%+51917.2%+480-1.1pp
ATL leads45.7%+11937.9%+164+7.7pp
78°F wind 5 mph
PHI Projected ATL Projected

Why the Braves. The late innings tilt toward the Braves, whose available relievers carry a 2.97 ERA against 3.56 for the Phillies.

The case for the Phillies. The Phillies' lineup sets up well for this matchup, with its contact and plate discipline playing up tonight. Don't read too much into the surface numbers on the mound — Aaron Nola (4.67 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 177 K) has a better underlying profile than his ERA suggests, and we like him more than Ray Kerr (1.47 ERA, 0.60 WHIP) tonight.

Notes. Philadelphia Phillies note — Aaron Nola: Nola will start Thursday in Game 3 of the wild-card series in Atlanta, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports. Atlanta Braves note — Ray Kerr: Kerr will be Atlanta's opener Thursday in Game 3 of the wild-card series versus the Phillies. Bryce Harper is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .220 — .290 wOBA vs. a .397 season mark. Matt Olson is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .194 — .211 wOBA vs. a .391 season mark. Atlanta Braves are going with a bullpen game: Grant Holmes is lined up for the bulk innings behind opener Ray Kerr, so the relief matchup matters more than usual here.

PHI PHI PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 1, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PAaronNola7-12 · 4.67 ERA · 175.1 IP1.35 WHIP · 177 SOCJ.T.Realmuto1BAlecBohm2BBrysonStott3BEdmundoSosaSSTreaTurnerLFBrandonMarshCFJustinCrawfordRFBryceHarper PHI @ ATL / Oct 1, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
9 of 9 positions confirmed
ATL ATL ATLANTA BRAVES — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 1, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PRayKerr0-0 · 1.47 ERA · 18.1 IP0.60 WHIP · 11 SOCSeanMurphy1BMattOlson2BOzzieAlbies3BAustinRileySSMauricioDubónLFMikeYastrzemskiCFMichaelHarris IIRFRonaldAcuña Jr. PHI @ ATL / Oct 1, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
9 of 9 positions confirmed
PHI bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
Tim Mayza3.481.13646006d ago
Chase Shugart4.021.17594605d ago
José Alvarado5.861.65706815d ago
Jonathan Bowlan3.361.037359214d ago
Tanner Banks6.191.84383205d ago
Jhoan Duran1.820.998461334d ago
Alex McFarlane2.841.16201904d ago
Andrew Painter5.401.411152507d ago
Jesús Luzardo2.861.072213004d ago
Zack Wheeler3.001.051932804d ago
Cristopher Sánchez2.911.202313306d ago
ATL bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
Robert Suarez1.060.88263345d ago
Dylan Dodd2.540.91534825d ago
Victor Mederos3.411.19343015d ago
Grant Holmes BULK3.441.311153106d ago
Brent Suter3.361.22785405d ago
Raisel Iglesias2.551.086459345d ago
Dylan Lee3.090.97777105d ago
Didier Fuentes2.451.10925836d ago
Chris Sale2.160.982002708d ago
Tyler Mahle3.991.231372707d ago
PHI (away)
Projected · most recent complete lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Trea Turner SS.2421958.675
2Kyle Schwarber DH.2324597.857
3Bryce Harper RF.2692987.865
4Bryson Stott 2B.2561067.735
5Alec Bohm 1B.2491588.698
6Brandon Marsh LF.2601862.712
7Edmundo Sosa 3B.247944.712
8Justin Crawford CF.264341.662
9J.T. Realmuto C.2051151.614
ATL (home)
Projected · most recent complete lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Michael Harris II CF.2942687.812
2Ronald Acuña Jr. RF.2552055.796
3Matt Olson 1B.2514193.823
4Drake Baldwin DH.2842579.817
5Mauricio Dubón SS.2761273.720
6Ozzie Albies 2B.2372273.685
7Mike Yastrzemski LF.2241241.689
8Austin Riley 3B.2191972.654
9Sean Murphy C.182310.556