MLB Slate — October 12, 2026

4:00 PM CT

NLCS Game 2

American Family Field

Los Angeles Dodgers

100-62

Yoshinobu Yamamoto
14-9, 2.53 ERA

Milwaukee Brewers

103-59

Logan Henderson
11-3, 2.47 ERA

LAD 51.8%

MIL 48.2%

Projected margin

LAD -0.6 · MIL +0.6

Model fair odds

LAD -107 · MIL +107

Model Suggests Lean · 51.8%

Moneyline (Kalshi): Milwaukee Brewers (KA +125) — model 48.2% vs. devigged market 44.5% (+3.7pp edge)

Model vs. Market DraftKings, Polymarket, Kalshi · current line

	Model fair	DraftKings	Polymarket	Kalshi
LAD ML	-107	-142	-120	-125
MIL ML	+107	+118	+120	+125
MIL +1.5	-138	-154	—	—

First 5 innings Kalshi · current line · devigged · model projects LAD +0.3 thru 5

	Model	Model fair	Kalshi	Kalshi odds	Edge
LAD leads	39.4%	+154	45.3%	+121	-5.9pp
Tied	16.4%	+510	19.4%	+415	-3.0pp
MIL leads	44.2%	+126	35.3%	+183	+8.9pp

84°F wind 12 mph

LAD Projected MIL Projected

Tonight’s Take

Why the Dodgers. Yoshinobu Yamamoto's arsenal plays well against how this Brewers lineup has handled similar pitch mixes. How the two bullpens line up tonight favors the Dodgers, with the arms they're likely to use in good shape. The Dodgers bring the deeper lineup — tonight's nine average a .788 OPS against .759 for the Brewers.

The case for the Brewers. Over the full body of work, the Brewers (103-59) grade out as the stronger club than the Dodgers (100-62).

Notes. Los Angeles Dodgers note — Tommy Edman: Edman is out of the lineup for Game 1 of the NLCS against the Brewers on Sunday, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports. Milwaukee Brewers note — Christian Yelich: Yelich is out of the lineup for Game 1 of the NLCS against the Dodgers on Sunday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. Freddie Freeman is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .231 — .307 wOBA vs. a .387 season mark. Will Smith is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .212 — .276 wOBA vs. a .366 season mark. Jake Bauers is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .229 — .290 wOBA vs. a .444 season mark.

Defensive alignment

8 of 9 positions confirmed

9 of 9 positions confirmed

Full lineups & bullpens

LAD bullpen

Pitcher	ERA	WHIP	SO	G	SV	Last pitched
Edgardo Henriquez	2.85	1.03	71	61	2	29d ago
Brock Stewart	2.70	1.01	25	28	1	16d ago
Edwin Díaz	8.68	1.98	28	21	7	15d ago
Kris Bubic	3.76	1.20	56	14	0	16d ago
Justin Wrobleski	3.66	1.14	118	28	0	15d ago
Roki Sasaki	4.49	1.32	123	26	0	15d ago
Tanner Scott	2.69	0.99	82	69	25	16d ago
Alex Vesia	2.64	1.07	74	72	3	15d ago
Evan Phillips	3.46	1.08	33	31	1	15d ago
Blake Snell	1.90	1.10	55	9	0	16d ago
Tyler Glasnow	3.53	0.95	98	13	0	17d ago
Tarik Skubal	2.72	0.96	186	26	0	16d ago

MIL bullpen

Pitcher	ERA	WHIP	SO	G	SV	Last pitched
JoJo Romero	3.36	1.22	54	55	0	15d ago
Antonio Senzatela	4.05	1.35	60	57	4	15d ago
Chad Patrick	3.40	1.24	93	57	6	15d ago
DL Hall	1.91	1.04	64	47	0	15d ago
Kyle Harrison	4.20	1.35	141	28	0	15d ago
Trevor Megill	2.63	0.89	69	63	30	16d ago
Shane Drohan	4.19	1.32	125	33	2	15d ago
Abner Uribe	1.97	1.03	62	61	6	16d ago
Aaron Ashby	3.12	1.31	116	75	4	15d ago
Dustin May	4.70	1.32	144	31	0	15d ago
Robert Gasser	3.87	1.19	103	21	0	16d ago
Jacob Misiorowski	1.80	0.80	252	30	0	15d ago

LAD (away)

Projected · most recent complete lineup

	Batter	AVG	HR	RBI	OPS
1	Shohei Ohtani DH	.275	30	81	.889
2	Mookie Betts SS	.257	23	69	.780
3	Freddie Freeman 1B	.288	16	70	.792
4	Will Smith C	.260	10	34	.781
5	Max Muncy 3B	.252	29	76	.838
6	Kyle Tucker RF	.233	17	70	.715
7	Andy Pages CF	.274	23	85	.811
8	Andy Pages CF	.274	23	85	.811
9	Enrique Hernández 2B	.222	4	12	.671

MIL (home)

Projected · most recent complete lineup

	Batter	AVG	HR	RBI	OPS
1	Jackson Chourio LF	.291	25	75	.838
2	Brice Turang 2B	.268	21	100	.816
3	Jake Bauers 1B	.266	26	86	.873
4	William Contreras C	.270	18	94	.758
5	Garrett Mitchell CF	.262	11	65	.770
6	Christian Yelich DH	.235	12	59	.693
7	Cooper Pratt SS	.281	3	34	.718
8	Luis Lara RF	.246	1	26	.636
9	Joey Ortiz 3B	.270	9	47	.730

7:00 PM CT

ALCS Game 1

Tropicana Field

Cleveland Guardians

85-77

Foster Griffin
15-6, 3.60 ERA

Tampa Bay Rays

98-64

Drew Rasmussen
16-5, 2.67 ERA

CLE 40.6%

TB 59.4%

Projected margin

TB -0.7 · CLE +0.7

Model fair odds

CLE +146 · TB -146

Model Suggests Moderate · 59.4%

Moneyline (Kalshi): Cleveland Guardians (KA +147) — model 40.6% vs. devigged market 40.5% (+0.1pp edge)

Model vs. Market DraftKings, Polymarket, Kalshi · current line

	Model fair	DraftKings	Polymarket	Kalshi
CLE ML	+146	+139	+153	+147
TB ML	-146	-169	-153	-147
TB -1.5	+132	+130	—	—

First 5 innings Kalshi · current line · devigged · model projects TB +0.8 thru 5

	Model	Model fair	Kalshi	Kalshi odds	Edge
CLE leads	33.2%	+202	30.7%	+226	+2.5pp
Tied	16.8%	+496	18.6%	+438	-1.8pp
TB leads	50.1%	-100	50.8%	-103	-0.7pp

72°F wind 5 mph

CLE Projected TB Projected

Tonight’s Take

Why the Rays. The edge on the mound belongs to the Rays: Drew Rasmussen (2.67 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 174 K) has been the better arm than Foster Griffin (3.60 ERA, 1.21 WHIP). Over the full body of work, the Rays (98-64) grade out as the stronger club than the Guardians (85-77). Drew Rasmussen's arsenal plays well against how this Guardians lineup has handled similar pitch mixes.

The case for the Guardians. The Guardians bring the deeper lineup — tonight's nine average a .723 OPS against .722 for the Rays. The Guardians come in playing the better recent baseball, on both sides of the ball.

Notes. Cleveland Guardians note — Daniel Schneemann: Scheemann is absent from the Guardians' roster for the ALCS, Tim Stebbins of MLB.com reports. Tampa Bay Rays note — Garrett Cleavinger: Cleavinger will not be on the Rays' ALCS roster, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports. Cleveland Guardians' starter has looked sharper lately — missing more bats over his last 3 starts (32.9% called-strike+whiff rate, vs. 27.7% on the season). Tampa Bay Rays' starter has looked sharper lately — missing more bats over his last 3 starts (33.3% called-strike+whiff rate, vs. 28.2% on the season). Junior Caminero is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .265 — .325 wOBA vs. a .413 season mark. Ryan Vilade is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .143 — .345 wOBA vs. a .421 season mark.

Defensive alignment

9 of 9 positions confirmed

Full lineups & bullpens

CLE bullpen

Pitcher	ERA	WHIP	SO	G	SV	Last pitched
Tim Herrin	3.02	1.31	54	67	0	17d ago
Daniel Espino	4.11	1.24	25	14	0	17d ago
Shawn Armstrong	4.58	1.39	34	41	0	16d ago
Matt Festa	3.78	1.31	69	66	1	17d ago
Erik Sabrowski	2.61	1.18	76	60	1	17d ago
Joey Cantillo	3.62	1.42	171	33	0	18d ago
Hunter Gaddis	2.98	1.28	57	68	1	17d ago
Cade Smith	1.95	0.96	107	69	41	16d ago
Tanner Bibee	4.36	1.22	148	33	0	16d ago
Parker Messick	2.56	1.06	193	32	0	15d ago
Gavin Williams	3.76	1.11	248	32	0	17d ago

TB bullpen

Pitcher	ERA	WHIP	SO	G	SV	Last pitched
Cam Booser	1.98	0.76	45	42	0	16d ago
Kevin Kelly	2.44	0.90	63	71	4	17d ago
Cole Sulser	4.31	1.24	56	51	3	16d ago
Tyler Wells	2.38	0.90	72	57	6	30d ago
Bryan Baker	1.44	0.91	63	65	41	17d ago
Garrett Cleavinger	4.79	1.43	54	51	2	37d ago
Steven Matz	5.49	1.23	61	36	1	16d ago
Ian Seymour	4.21	1.13	158	47	2	15d ago
Griffin Jax	3.53	1.18	116	34	0	16d ago
Freddy Peralta	4.42	1.33	156	32	0	17d ago
Nick Martinez	3.10	1.09	109	31	0	15d ago

CLE (away)

Projected · most recent complete lineup

	Batter	AVG	HR	RBI	OPS
1	Steven Kwan CF	.282	3	32	.731
2	José Ramírez 3B	.235	12	53	.688
3	Chase DeLauter RF	.287	16	67	.820
4	Jo Adell DH	.240	23	94	.699
5	Nathaniel Lowe 1B	.252	17	64	.761
6	Angel Martínez LF	.254	18	62	.755
7	Travis Bazzana 2B	.245	15	57	.743
8	Patrick Bailey C	.206	10	37	.607
9	Brayan Rocchio SS	.253	15	73	.704

TB (home)

Projected · most recent complete lineup

	Batter	AVG	HR	RBI	OPS
1	Yandy Díaz DH	.293	22	85	.805
2	Jonathan Aranda 1B	.274	22	92	.792
3	Junior Caminero 3B	.276	42	101	.884
4	Ryan Vilade RF	.245	11	43	.750
5	Jonny DeLuca CF	.266	11	50	.729
6	Chandler Simpson LF	.306	0	38	.689
7	Nick Fortes C	.258	6	35	.680
8	Jorge Mateo 2B	.203	5	18	.559
9	Taylor Walls SS	.222	2	36	.607

Tonight's Slate