Model projections, compared against the market

Tonight's Slate

October 6, 2026 — projected margins and win probabilities for every game, checked against DraftKings, Polymarket, and Kalshi. Updated Oct 6, 10:18 AM CT.
2Games
0Strong leans
2Moderate leans
0Toss-ups
5:00 PM CT
NLDS 'B' Game 3
Truist Park
Los Angeles Dodgers
100-62
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
14-9, 2.53 ERA
@
Atlanta Braves
94-68
Chris Sale
14-9, 2.16 ERA
Projected margin
LAD -1.0 · ATL +1.0
Model fair odds
LAD -123 · ATL +123
Model Suggests Moderate · 55.1%
Moneyline (Kalshi): Los Angeles Dodgers (KA -102) — model 55.1% vs. devigged market 50.5% (+4.6pp edge)
Model vs. Market DraftKings, Polymarket, Kalshi · current line
Model fairDraftKingsPolymarketKalshi
LAD ML-123 -109 +102 -102
ATL ML+123 -110 -102 +102
ATL +1.5-120-196——
First 5 innings Kalshi · current line · devigged · model projects ATL +0.1 thru 5
ModelModel fairKalshiKalshi oddsEdge
LAD leads40.2%+14938.9%+157+1.3pp
Tied16.2%+51619.2%+421-3.0pp
ATL leads43.6%+13041.9%+139+1.7pp
74°F wind 5 mph
LAD Projected ATL Projected

Why the Dodgers. Over the full body of work, the Dodgers (100-62) grade out as the stronger club than the Braves (94-68). The Dodgers' relievers have the right stuff for this Braves lineup — the pitch-mix matchup runs their way late. The late innings tilt toward the Dodgers, whose available relievers carry a 3.33 ERA against 3.40 for the Braves.

The case for the Braves. The edge on the mound belongs to the Braves: Chris Sale (2.16 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 200 K) has been the better arm than Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.53 ERA, 0.87 WHIP).

Notes. Lineup buzz for Los Angeles Dodgers: T. Hernandez now expected in tonight's lineup. Los Angeles Dodgers note — Blake Snell: Snell didn't factor in the decision in Game 2 of the NLDS against Atlanta on Sunday. He gave up a run on three hits with five strikeouts and five walks over 3.2 innings. Atlanta Braves note — Michael Harris: Harris went 3-for-5 with a double, a triple, one RBI and one run in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Dodgers on Sunday. Atlanta Braves' starter has looked sharper lately — missing more bats over his last 3 starts (36.6% called-strike+whiff rate, vs. 31.7% on the season). Freddie Freeman is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .225 — .263 wOBA vs. a .389 season mark. Will Smith is running hot over his last 10 games, batting .343 — .449 wOBA vs. a .376 season mark. Matt Olson is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .171 — .245 wOBA vs. a .390 season mark. Drake Baldwin is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .250 — .318 wOBA vs. a .393 season mark.

LAD LAD LOS ANGELES DODGERS — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 6, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PYoshinobuYamamoto14-9 · 2.53 ERA · 185.0 IP0.87 WHIP · 182 SOCWillSmith1BFreddieFreeman2BTommyEdman3BMaxMuncySSMookieBettsLFNot postedCFAndyPagesRFKyleTucker LAD @ ATL / Oct 6, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
8 of 9 positions confirmed
ATL ATL ATLANTA BRAVES — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 6, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PChrisSale14-9 · 2.16 ERA · 162.2 IP0.98 WHIP · 200 SOCSeanMurphy1BMattOlson2BOzzieAlbies3BAustinRileySSMauricioDubónLFMikeYastrzemskiCFMichaelHarris IIRFRonaldAcuña Jr. LAD @ ATL / Oct 6, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
9 of 9 positions confirmed
LAD bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
Alex Vesia2.641.07747239d ago
Tanner Scott2.690.9982692510d ago
Edwin Díaz8.681.98282179d ago
Edgardo Henriquez2.851.037161223d ago
Evan Phillips3.461.08333119d ago
Brock Stewart2.701.012528110d ago
Kris Bubic3.761.205614010d ago
Roki Sasaki4.491.321232609d ago
Tyler Glasnow3.530.959813011d ago
Blake Snell1.901.10559010d ago
Tarik Skubal2.720.9618626010d ago
ATL bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
Victor Mederos3.411.193430110d ago
Robert Suarez1.060.882633410d ago
Raisel Iglesias2.551.0864593410d ago
Dylan Lee3.090.977771010d ago
Brent Suter3.361.227854010d ago
Dylan Dodd2.540.915348210d ago
JR Ritchie4.911.47681719d ago
Grant Holmes3.441.3111531010d ago
AJ Smith-Shawver6.611.5327909d ago
Didier Fuentes2.451.109258310d ago
Ray Kerr1.470.60119010d ago
Tyler Mahle3.991.2313727011d ago
LAD (away)
Projected · most recent complete lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Shohei Ohtani DH.2753081.889
2Mookie Betts SS.2572369.780
3Freddie Freeman 1B.2881670.792
4Will Smith C.2601034.781
5Max Muncy 3B.2522976.838
6Kyle Tucker RF.2331770.715
7Andy Pages CF.2742385.811
8Andy Pages CF.2742385.811
9Tommy Edman 2B.247842.714
ATL (home)
Projected · most recent complete lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Michael Harris II CF.2942687.812
2Ronald Acuña Jr. RF.2552055.796
3Matt Olson 1B.2514193.823
4Drake Baldwin DH.2842579.817
5Mauricio Dubón SS.2761273.720
6Ozzie Albies 2B.2372273.685
7Mike Yastrzemski LF.2241241.689
8Austin Riley 3B.2191972.654
9Sean Murphy C.182310.556
8:30 PM CT
NLDS 'A' Game 3
Petco Park
Milwaukee Brewers
103-59
Dustin May
7-9, 4.70 ERA
@
San Diego Padres
91-71
Nick Pivetta
3-2, 2.86 ERA
Projected margin
SD -0.3 · MIL +0.3
Model fair odds
MIL +127 · SD -127
Model Suggests Moderate · 55.9%
Moneyline (Kalshi): San Diego Padres (KA -125) — model 55.9% vs. devigged market 55.5% (+0.4pp edge)
Model vs. Market DraftKings, Polymarket, Kalshi · current line
Model fairDraftKingsPolymarketKalshi
MIL ML+127 +114 +125 +125
SD ML-127 -138 -125 -125
SD -1.5+154+158——
First 5 innings Kalshi · current line · devigged · model projects SD +0.7 thru 5
ModelModel fairKalshiKalshi oddsEdge
MIL leads36.5%+17436.7%+173-0.2pp
Tied16.2%+51916.6%+503-0.4pp
SD leads47.4%+11146.7%+114+0.6pp
84°F wind 6 mph
MIL Projected SD Projected

Why the Padres. Nick Pivetta's arsenal plays well against how this Brewers lineup has handled similar pitch mixes. The edge on the mound belongs to the Padres: Nick Pivetta (2.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 42 K) has been the better arm than Dustin May (4.70 ERA, 1.32 WHIP). The late innings tilt toward the Padres, whose available relievers carry a 3.04 ERA against 3.11 for the Brewers.

The case for the Brewers. Over the full body of work, the Brewers (103-59) grade out as the stronger club than the Padres (91-71). The Brewers come in playing the better recent baseball, on both sides of the ball.

Notes. Milwaukee Brewers note — Logan Henderson: Henderson didn't factor in the decision after giving up two runs (one earned) on two hits over five innings during Game 2 of the NLDS against the Padres on Sunday. He struck out four and walked three. San Diego Padres note — Michael King: King didn't factor into the decision in Game 2 of the NLDS versus the Brewers on Sunday. He struck out six, allowing one run on three hits and no walks over five-plus innings. Jake Bauers is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .229 — .278 wOBA vs. a .445 season mark. Jackson Merrill is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .263 — .268 wOBA vs. a .361 season mark.

MIL MIL MILWAUKEE BREWERS — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 6, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PDustinMay7-9 · 4.70 ERA · 145.2 IP1.32 WHIP · 144 SOCWilliamContreras1BJakeBauers2BBriceTurang3BJoeyOrtizSSCooperPrattLFJacksonChourioCFGarrettMitchellRFLuisLara MIL @ SD / Oct 6, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
9 of 9 positions confirmed
SD SD SAN DIEGO PADRES — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 6, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PNickPivetta3-2 · 2.86 ERA · 34.2 IP1.01 WHIP · 42 SOCEthanSalas1BTyFrance2BJakeCronenworth3BMannyMachadoSSXanderBogaertsLFDustinHarrisCFJacksonMerrillRFFernandoTatis Jr. MIL @ SD / Oct 6, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
9 of 9 positions confirmed
MIL bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
Antonio Senzatela4.051.356057410d ago
DL Hall1.911.04644709d ago
Chad Patrick3.401.24935769d ago
JoJo Romero3.361.225455010d ago
Kyle Harrison4.201.3514128010d ago
Shane Drohan4.191.321253329d ago
Trevor Megill2.630.8969633011d ago
Aaron Ashby3.121.3111675410d ago
Abner Uribe1.971.036261611d ago
Robert Gasser3.871.1910321011d ago
Jacob Misiorowski1.800.802523009d ago
Logan Henderson2.470.8411018013d ago
SD bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
David Morgan3.781.773932010d ago
Adrian Morejon2.831.0810776310d ago
Jason Adam2.621.172238210d ago
Joe Musgrove739d ago
Bradgley Rodriguez2.191.078168210d ago
Randy Vásquez3.901.27873209d ago
Yuki Matsui1.831.146854110d ago
Mason Miller1.670.90129663810d ago
Robbie Ray3.591.3514031012d ago
Michael King3.211.1815932013d ago
MIL (away)
Projected · most recent complete lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Jackson Chourio LF.2912575.838
2Brice Turang 2B.26821100.816
3Jake Bauers 1B.2662686.873
4William Contreras C.2701894.758
5Garrett Mitchell CF.2621165.770
6Christian Yelich DH.2351259.693
7Cooper Pratt SS.281334.718
8Luis Lara RF.246126.636
9Joey Ortiz 3B.270947.730
SD (home)
Projected · most recent complete lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Fernando Tatis Jr. RF.2892583.828
2Dustin Harris LF.293019.736
3Manny Machado 3B.2173091.710
4Jackson Merrill CF.2542687.743
5Ty France 1B.2952172.865
6Xander Bogaerts SS.2311357.676
7Ethan Salas C.25625.737
8Luis Campusano DH.265830.796
9Jake Cronenworth 2B.225741.629