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| Model fair | DraftKings | Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI ML | +110 | -118 | +102 | +102 |
| ATL ML | -110 | -102 | -102 | -102 |
| ATL +1.5 | -166 | -174 | — | — |
| Model | Model fair | Kalshi | Kalshi odds | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI leads | 37.5% | +167 | 47.2% | +112 | -9.7pp |
| Tied | 16.4% | +510 | 17.1% | +485 | -0.7pp |
| ATL leads | 46.1% | +117 | 35.7% | +180 | +10.4pp |
Why the Braves. The Braves starter's arsenal plays well against how this Phillies lineup has handled similar pitch mixes. The late innings tilt toward the Braves, whose available relievers carry a 2.94 ERA against 3.72 for the Phillies.
The case for the Phillies. The Phillies bring the deeper lineup — tonight's nine average a .739 OPS against .706 for the Braves. The Phillies come in playing the better recent baseball, on both sides of the ball.
Notes. Philadelphia Phillies note — Alec Bohm: Bohm went 2-for-4 with a walk and a solo home run during Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series against Atlanta on Wednesday. Atlanta Braves note — Tyler Mahle: Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said after Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series against the Phillies on Wednesday that Mahle suffered an abdominal injury while warming up and nearly didn't start as scheduled, Grant McAuley... Bryce Harper is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .175 — .229 wOBA vs. a .395 season mark. Alec Bohm is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .216 — .283 wOBA vs. a .353 season mark. Matt Olson is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .243 — .284 wOBA vs. a .393 season mark.
| Pitcher | ERA | WHIP | SO | G | SV | Last pitched |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Mayza | 3.48 | 1.13 | 64 | 60 | 0 | 6d ago |
| Chase Shugart | 4.02 | 1.17 | 59 | 46 | 0 | 5d ago |
| José Alvarado | 5.86 | 1.65 | 70 | 68 | 1 | 5d ago |
| Jonathan Bowlan | 3.36 | 1.03 | 73 | 59 | 2 | 14d ago |
| Alex McFarlane | 2.84 | 1.16 | 20 | 19 | 0 | 4d ago |
| Tanner Banks | 6.19 | 1.84 | 38 | 32 | 0 | 5d ago |
| Jhoan Duran | 1.82 | 0.99 | 84 | 61 | 33 | 4d ago |
| Aaron Nola | 4.67 | 1.35 | 177 | 33 | 0 | 5d ago |
| Andrew Painter | 5.40 | 1.41 | 115 | 25 | 0 | 7d ago |
| Cristopher Sánchez | 2.91 | 1.20 | 231 | 33 | 0 | 6d ago |
| Jesús Luzardo | 2.86 | 1.07 | 221 | 30 | 0 | 4d ago |
| Zack Wheeler | 3.00 | 1.05 | 193 | 28 | 0 | 4d ago |
| Pitcher | ERA | WHIP | SO | G | SV | Last pitched |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Suarez | 1.06 | 0.88 | 26 | 33 | 4 | 5d ago |
| Dylan Dodd | 2.54 | 0.91 | 53 | 48 | 2 | 5d ago |
| Victor Mederos | 3.41 | 1.19 | 34 | 30 | 1 | 5d ago |
| Dylan Lee | 3.09 | 0.97 | 77 | 71 | 0 | 5d ago |
| Didier Fuentes | 2.45 | 1.10 | 92 | 58 | 3 | 6d ago |
| Raisel Iglesias | 2.55 | 1.08 | 64 | 59 | 34 | 5d ago |
| Grant Holmes | 3.44 | 1.31 | 115 | 31 | 0 | 6d ago |
| Brent Suter | 3.36 | 1.22 | 78 | 54 | 0 | 5d ago |
| Ray Kerr | 1.47 | 0.60 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 6d ago |
| Tyler Mahle | 3.99 | 1.23 | 137 | 27 | 0 | 7d ago |
| Chris Sale | 2.16 | 0.98 | 200 | 27 | 0 | 8d ago |
| Batter | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trea Turner SS | .242 | 19 | 58 | .675 |
| 2 | Kyle Schwarber DH | .232 | 45 | 97 | .857 |
| 3 | Bryce Harper 1B | .269 | 29 | 87 | .865 |
| 4 | Alec Bohm 3B | .249 | 15 | 88 | .698 |
| 5 | Derek Hill RF | .241 | 11 | 31 | .733 |
| 6 | Bryan De La Cruz LF | .280 | 2 | 12 | .762 |
| 7 | Bryson Stott 2B | .256 | 10 | 67 | .735 |
| 8 | Edmundo Sosa 3B | .247 | 9 | 44 | .712 |
| 9 | J.T. Realmuto C | .205 | 11 | 51 | .614 |
| Batter | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Baldwin C | .284 | 25 | 79 | .817 |
| 2 | Ronald Acuña Jr. RF | .255 | 20 | 55 | .796 |
| 3 | Matt Olson 1B | .251 | 41 | 93 | .823 |
| 4 | Mauricio Dubón SS | .276 | 12 | 73 | .720 |
| 5 | Michael Harris II CF | .294 | 26 | 87 | .812 |
| 6 | Ozzie Albies 2B | .237 | 22 | 73 | .685 |
| 7 | Austin Riley 3B | .219 | 19 | 72 | .654 |
| 8 | Mike Yastrzemski LF | .224 | 12 | 41 | .689 |
| 9 | Ha-Seong Kim SS | .116 | 0 | 9 | .359 |