Model projections, compared against the market

Tonight's Slate

October 14, 2026 — projected margins and win probabilities for every game, checked against DraftKings, Polymarket, and Kalshi. Updated Oct 14, 10:37 AM CT.
1Games
1Strong leans
0Moderate leans
0Toss-ups
7:00 PM CT
NLCS Game 3
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Milwaukee Brewers
103-59
Robert Gasser
5-5, 3.87 ERA
@
Los Angeles Dodgers
100-62
Blake Snell
4-1, 1.90 ERA
Projected margin
LAD -0.9 · MIL +0.9
Model fair odds
MIL +153 · LAD -153
Model Suggests Strong · 60.4%
Moneyline (Kalshi): Milwaukee Brewers (KA +160) — model 39.6% vs. devigged market 38.5% (+1.1pp edge)
Model vs. Market DraftKings, Polymarket, Kalshi · current line
Model fairDraftKingsPolymarketKalshi
MIL ML+153 +145 +153 +160
LAD ML-153 -176 -153 -160
LAD -1.5+126+122——
First 5 innings Kalshi · current line · devigged · model projects LAD +0.9 thru 5
ModelModel fairKalshiKalshi oddsEdge
MIL leads28.9%+24632.0%+212-3.1pp
Tied17.0%+48816.3%+515+0.7pp
LAD leads54.1%-11851.7%-107+2.4pp
76°F wind 8 mph
MIL Projected LAD Projected

Why the Dodgers. Blake Snell's arsenal plays well against how this Brewers lineup has handled similar pitch mixes. The edge on the mound belongs to the Dodgers: Blake Snell (1.90 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 55 K) has been the better arm than Robert Gasser (3.87 ERA, 1.19 WHIP). How the two bullpens line up tonight favors the Dodgers, with the arms they're likely to use in good shape.

The case for the Brewers. The Brewers' lineup sets up well for this matchup, with its contact and plate discipline playing up tonight.

Notes. Milwaukee Brewers note — Aaron Ashby: Ashby struck out two without allowing a baserunner in 1.2 scoreless innings to earn the save in Game 2 of the NLCS against the Dodgers on Monday. Los Angeles Dodgers note — Shohei Ohtani: Manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday that Ohtani will be in the lineup for Game 3 of the NLCS against Milwaukee on Wednesday, Jack Harris of the California Post reports. Los Angeles Dodgers' starter has looked flatter lately — getting hit harder over his last 3 starts (26.3% called-strike+whiff rate, vs. 30.5% on the season). William Contreras is running hot over his last 10 games, batting .324 — .450 wOBA vs. a .374 season mark. Will Smith is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .194 — .255 wOBA vs. a .362 season mark. Teoscar Hernández is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .194 — .275 wOBA vs. a .397 season mark.

MIL MIL MILWAUKEE BREWERS — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 14, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PRobertGasser5-5 · 3.87 ERA · 109.1 IP1.19 WHIP · 103 SOCWilliamContreras1BJakeBauers2BBriceTurang3BJoeyOrtizSSCooperPrattLFJacksonChourioCFGarrettMitchellRFLuisLara MIL @ LAD / Oct 14, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
9 of 9 positions confirmed
LAD LAD LOS ANGELES DODGERS — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 14, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PBlakeSnell4-1 · 1.90 ERA · 42.2 IP1.10 WHIP · 55 SOCWillSmith1BFreddieFreeman2BTommyEdman3BMiguelRojasSSMookieBettsLFTeoscarHernándezCFAndyPagesRFKyleTucker MIL @ LAD / Oct 14, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
9 of 9 positions confirmed
MIL bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
Antonio Senzatela4.051.35605747d ago
DL Hall1.911.04644703d ago
JoJo Romero3.361.22545502d ago
Chad Patrick3.401.249357617d ago
Trevor Megill2.630.896963303d ago
Kyle Harrison4.201.3514128018d ago
Abner Uribe1.971.03626162d ago
Shane Drohan4.191.3212533217d ago
Dustin May4.701.321443102d ago
Aaron Ashby3.121.311167542d ago
Jacob Misiorowski1.800.802523003d ago
Logan Henderson2.470.841101802d ago
LAD bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
Edwin Díaz8.681.98282177d ago
Alex Vesia2.641.07747232d ago
Evan Phillips3.461.08333113d ago
Brock Stewart2.701.01252812d ago
Edgardo Henriquez2.851.03716122d ago
Justin Wrobleski3.661.141182802d ago
Tanner Scott2.690.998269252d ago
Roki Sasaki4.491.321232602d ago
Kris Bubic3.761.20561402d ago
Tyler Glasnow3.530.95981307d ago
Tarik Skubal2.720.961862603d ago
Yoshinobu Yamamoto2.530.871822802d ago
MIL (away)
Projected · most recent complete lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Jackson Chourio LF.2912575.838
2Brice Turang 2B.26821100.816
3William Contreras C.2701894.758
4Gary Sánchez DH.2091238.771
5Jake Bauers 1B.2662686.873
6Luis Lara RF.246126.636
7Cooper Pratt SS.281334.718
8Garrett Mitchell CF.2621165.770
9Joey Ortiz 3B.270947.730
LAD (home)
Projected · most recent complete lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Mookie Betts SS.2572369.780
2Freddie Freeman 1B.2881670.792
3Teoscar Hernández LF.2671664.759
4Will Smith C.2601034.781
5Shohei Ohtani DH.2753081.889
6Kyle Tucker RF.2331770.715
7Andy Pages CF.2742385.811
8Miguel Rojas 3B.267423.703
9Tommy Edman 2B.247842.714