Tonight's Slate

Why the Guardians. The late innings tilt toward the Guardians, whose available relievers carry a 3.59 ERA against 3.75 for the White Sox. The Guardians' lineup sets up well for this matchup, with its contact and plate discipline playing up tonight.

The case for the White Sox. The edge on the mound belongs to the White Sox: Hagen Smith (1.29 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 41 K) has been the better arm than Parker Messick (2.56 ERA, 1.06 WHIP). Hagen Smith's arsenal plays well against how this Guardians lineup has handled similar pitch mixes.

Notes. Chicago White Sox are going with a bullpen game: David Sandlin is lined up for the bulk innings behind opener Hagen Smith, so the relief matchup matters more than usual here.

Why the Dodgers. The Dodgers' relievers have the right stuff for this Braves lineup — the pitch-mix matchup runs their way late. Don't read too much into the surface numbers on the mound — Tarik Skubal (2.72 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 186 K) has a better underlying profile than his ERA suggests, and we like him more than Dylan Dodd (2.54 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) tonight. Over the full body of work, the Dodgers (100-62) grade out as the stronger club than the Braves (94-68).

Notes. Atlanta Braves note — Dylan Dodd: Dodd will serve as the opening pitcher Saturday during Game 1 of Atlanta's National League Division Series against the Dodgers, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports. Los Angeles Dodgers note — Tarik Skubal: Skubal will start Game 1 of the NLDS against Atlanta on Saturday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports. Matt Olson is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .171 — .234 wOBA vs. a .393 season mark. Will Smith is running hot over his last 10 games, batting .382 — .502 wOBA vs. a .387 season mark. Freddie Freeman is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .195 — .205 wOBA vs. a .387 season mark. Atlanta Braves are going with a bullpen game: JR Ritchie is lined up for the bulk innings behind opener Dylan Dodd, so the relief matchup matters more than usual here.

Why the Rays. Drew Rasmussen's arsenal plays well against how this Yankees lineup has handled similar pitch mixes. The edge on the mound belongs to the Rays: Drew Rasmussen (2.67 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 174 K) has been the better arm than Gerrit Cole (3.61 ERA, 1.10 WHIP). How the two bullpens line up tonight favors the Rays, with the arms they're likely to use in good shape.

The case for the Yankees. The Yankees' lineup sets up well for this matchup, with its contact and plate discipline playing up tonight. Over the full body of work, the Yankees (93-68) grade out as the stronger club than the Rays (98-64).

Notes. New York Yankees note — Ryan Weathers: Weathers (forearm) is listed on the Yankees' roster for their American League Division Series against the Rays. Tampa Bay Rays note — Cedric Mullins: Mullins isn't in the lineup Saturday for Game 1 of the ALDS against the Yankees. New York Yankees' starter has looked flatter lately — getting hit harder over his last 3 starts (23.9% called-strike+whiff rate, vs. 28.3% on the season). Luis García Jr. is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .189 — .226 wOBA vs. a .380 season mark. Spencer Jones is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .171 — .229 wOBA vs. a .400 season mark. Junior Caminero is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .257 — .316 wOBA vs. a .414 season mark. Liam Hicks is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .258 — .317 wOBA vs. a .382 season mark.

Why the Brewers. The edge on the mound belongs to the Brewers: Jacob Misiorowski (1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 252 K) has been the better arm than Robbie Ray (3.59 ERA, 1.35 WHIP). Over the full body of work, the Brewers (103-59) grade out as the stronger club than the Padres (91-71). The Brewers come in playing the better recent baseball, on both sides of the ball.

The case for the Padres. The late innings tilt toward the Padres, whose available relievers carry a 2.90 ERA against 3.52 for the Brewers.

Notes. San Diego Padres note — Robbie Ray: The Padres will start Ray in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Brewers on Saturday. Milwaukee Brewers note — Kyle Harrison: Harrison is listed on the Brewers' roster for their National League Division Series against the Padres.