Model projections, compared against the market

Tonight's Slate

October 3, 2026 — projected margins and win probabilities for every game, checked against DraftKings, Polymarket, and Kalshi. Updated Oct 2, 12:20 AM CT.
4Games
1Strong leans
1Moderate leans
2Toss-ups
12:00 PM CT
ALDS 'B' Game 1
Progressive Field
Chicago White Sox
84-78
TBD
—
@
Cleveland Guardians
85-77
Parker Messick
12-9, 2.56 ERA
Projected margin
CLE -0.0 · CHW +0.0
Model fair odds
CHW +113 · CLE -113
Model Suggests Lean · 53.1%
Moneyline (Kalshi): Chicago White Sox (KA +141) — model 46.9% vs. devigged market 41.5% (+5.4pp edge)
Model vs. Market DraftKings, Polymarket, Kalshi · current line
Model fairDraftKingsPolymarketKalshi
CHW ML+113 +129 +135 +141
CLE ML-113 -156 -135 -141
CLE -1.5+174+145——
First 5 innings Kalshi · current line · devigged · model projects CLE +0.5 thru 5
ModelModel fairKalshiKalshi oddsEdge
CHW leads35.6%+18134.0%+194+1.6pp
Tied16.4%+51117.5%+471-1.1pp
CLE leads48.1%+10848.5%+106-0.4pp
62°F wind 6 mph
CHW Projected CLE Projected

Why the Guardians. Parker Messick's arsenal plays well against how this White Sox lineup has handled similar pitch mixes. The late innings tilt toward the Guardians, whose available relievers carry a 3.72 ERA against 3.74 for the White Sox.

The case for the White Sox. The White Sox bring the deeper lineup — tonight's nine average a .747 OPS against .679 for the Guardians. Over the full body of work, the White Sox (84-78) grade out as the stronger club than the Guardians (85-77).

Notes. Chicago White Sox note — Chase Meidroth: Meidroth went 2-for-3 with a walk and a three-run home run during Game 2 of the AL Wild Card Series against the Astros on Wednesday. Cleveland Guardians note — Colin Holderman: Holderman will undergo season-ending surgery on his right wrist, Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports. Nathaniel Lowe is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .269 — .241 wOBA vs. a .395 season mark.

CHW CHW CHICAGO WHITE SOX — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 3, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PNot postedCKyleTeel1BMunetakaMurakami2BChaseMeidroth3BMiguelVargasSSColsonMontgomeryLFSamAntonacciCFNot postedRFBradenMontgomery CHW @ CLE / Oct 3, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
7 of 9 positions confirmed
CLE CLE CLEVELAND GUARDIANS — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 3, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PParkerMessick12-9 · 2.56 ERA · 186.1 IP1.06 WHIP · 193 SOCDavidFry1BNathanielLowe2BTravisBazzana3BDanielSchneemannSSAngelGenaoLFAngelMartínezCFPeteyHalpinRFJoAdell CHW @ CLE / Oct 3, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
9 of 9 positions confirmed
CHW bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
Huascar Brazobán2.961.09566006d ago
Bryan Hudson3.741.28597086d ago
Sean Newcomb3.091.18846045d ago
Jordan Hicks3.941.54645316d ago
Hagen Smith1.290.96411807d ago
Noah Schultz5.571.33671906d ago
Grant Taylor2.251.0710660107d ago
Davis Martin3.951.321222906d ago
Erick Fedde3.831.35993309d ago
David Sandlin5.581.2140808d ago
Anthony Kay4.441.371293305d ago
Sean Burke3.341.201853207d ago
CLE bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
Tim Herrin3.021.31546707d ago
Erik Sabrowski2.611.18766017d ago
Cade Smith1.950.9610769416d ago
Hunter Gaddis2.981.28576817d ago
Shawn Armstrong4.581.39344106d ago
Daniel Espino4.111.24251407d ago
Matt Festa3.781.31696617d ago
Colin Holderman2.731.045054129d ago
Franco Aleman4.431.572821020d ago
Austin Peterson2.570.868205d ago
Slade Cecconi4.911.43992806d ago
Andrew Walters490d ago
Joey Cantillo3.621.421713308d ago
Logan Allen5.941.74167028d ago
Foster Griffin3.601.211583109d ago
Gavin Williams3.761.112483207d ago
Tanner Bibee4.361.221483306d ago
Yorman Gómez—
CHW (away)
Projected · most recent complete lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Sam Antonacci LF.277848.766
2Kyle Teel C.210526.697
3Miguel Vargas 3B.2503393.837
4Munetaka Murakami 1B.2073577.825
5Andrew Benintendi DH.2401578.715
6Tristan Peters LF.2651256.774
7Chase Meidroth 2B.2761663.765
8Braden Montgomery RF.226638.662
9Colson Montgomery SS.1973187.685
CLE (home)
Projected · most recent complete lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Angel Martínez LF.2541862.755
2Travis Bazzana 2B.2451557.743
3Jo Adell RF.2402394.699
4Nathaniel Lowe 1B.2521764.761
5David Fry C.201820.677
6Angel Genao SS.21326.572
7Austin Hedges DH.247625.702
8Daniel Schneemann 3B.210730.608
9Petey Halpin CF.225414.594
3:00 PM CT
NLDS 'B' Game 1
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Atlanta Braves
94-68
TBD
—
@
Los Angeles Dodgers
100-62
TBD
—
Projected margin
LAD -0.9 · ATL +0.9
Model fair odds
ATL +156 · LAD -156
Model Suggests Strong · 60.9%
Moneyline (Kalshi): Atlanta Braves (KA +190) — model 39.1% vs. devigged market 34.5% (+4.6pp edge)
Model vs. Market DraftKings, Polymarket, Kalshi · current line
Model fairDraftKingsPolymarketKalshi
ATL ML+156 +168 — +190
LAD ML-156 -205 — -190
LAD -1.5+123+109——
First 5 innings Kalshi · current line · devigged · model projects LAD +0.6 thru 5
ModelModel fairKalshiKalshi oddsEdge
ATL leads34.5%+19032.7%+206+1.8pp
Tied16.2%+51727.9%+258-11.7pp
LAD leads49.3%+10339.4%+154+9.9pp
101°F wind 3 mph
ATL Projected LAD Projected

Why the Dodgers. The Dodgers' relievers have the right stuff for this Braves lineup — the pitch-mix matchup runs their way late. Over the full body of work, the Dodgers (100-62) grade out as the stronger club than the Braves (94-68). The Dodgers come in playing the better recent baseball, on both sides of the ball.

The case for the Braves. The Braves' lineup sets up well for this matchup, with its contact and plate discipline playing up tonight. The late innings tilt toward the Braves, whose available relievers carry a 2.94 ERA against 3.23 for the Dodgers.

Notes. Atlanta Braves note — Chris Sale: Sale pitched 1.1 scoreless innings to close out Atlanta's victory over Philadelphia in Game 3 of the NL Wild Card Series on Thursday. He allowed one hit and no walks while striking out three. Ozzie Albies is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .143 — .203 wOBA vs. a .325 season mark. Matt Olson is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .194 — .211 wOBA vs. a .391 season mark. Freddie Freeman is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .195 — .205 wOBA vs. a .387 season mark. Kyle Tucker is running hot over his last 10 games, batting .333 — .428 wOBA vs. a .356 season mark.

ATL ATL ATLANTA BRAVES — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 3, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PNot postedCSeanMurphy1BMattOlson2BOzzieAlbies3BAustinRileySSMauricioDubónLFNot postedCFMichaelHarris IIRFRonaldAcuña Jr. ATL @ LAD / Oct 3, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
7 of 9 positions confirmed
LAD LAD LOS ANGELES DODGERS — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 3, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PNot postedCHunterFeduccia1BFreddieFreeman2BTommyEdman3BMaxMuncySSMookieBettsLFTeoscarHernándezCFAndyPagesRFKyleTucker ATL @ LAD / Oct 3, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
8 of 9 positions confirmed
ATL bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
Robert Suarez1.060.88263346d ago
Dylan Dodd2.540.91534826d ago
Victor Mederos3.411.19343016d ago
Dylan Lee3.090.97777106d ago
Didier Fuentes2.451.10925837d ago
Raisel Iglesias2.551.086459346d ago
Brent Suter3.361.22785406d ago
Ray Kerr1.470.6011907d ago
Grant Holmes3.441.311153107d ago
Chris Sale2.160.982002709d ago
Tyler Mahle3.991.231372708d ago
LAD bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
Alex Vesia2.641.07747236d ago
Jack Dreyer3.201.10736726d ago
Brock Stewart2.701.01252816d ago
Tanner Scott2.690.998269256d ago
Evan Phillips3.461.08333116d ago
Edwin Díaz8.681.98282176d ago
Roki Sasaki4.491.321232606d ago
Edgardo Henriquez2.851.037161220d ago
Kris Bubic3.761.20561406d ago
Justin Wrobleski3.661.141182806d ago
Bobby Miller3.681.238306d ago
Paul Gervase2.351.5784089d ago
Blake Snell1.901.1055906d ago
Tarik Skubal2.720.961862607d ago
Yoshinobu Yamamoto2.530.871822809d ago
Tyler Glasnow3.530.95981308d ago
Ronan Kopp—
ATL (away)
Projected · most recent complete lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Ronald Acuña Jr. RF.2552055.796
2Drake Baldwin DH.2842579.817
3Ozzie Albies 2B.2372273.685
4Matt Olson 1B.2514193.823
5Mauricio Dubón SS.2761273.720
6Austin Riley 3B.2191972.654
7Michael Harris II CF.2942687.812
8Sean Murphy C.182310.556
9Ha-Seong Kim SS.11609.359
LAD (home)
Projected · most recent complete lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Shohei Ohtani DH.2753081.889
2Mookie Betts SS.2572369.780
3Freddie Freeman 1B.2881670.792
4Kyle Tucker RF.2331770.715
5Teoscar Hernández LF.2671664.759
6Max Muncy 3B.2522976.838
7Andy Pages CF.2742385.811
8Hunter Feduccia C.221319.625
9Tommy Edman 2B.247842.714
5:30 PM CT
ALDS 'A' Game 1
Tropicana Field
New York Yankees
93-68
TBD
—
@
Tampa Bay Rays
98-64
Drew Rasmussen
16-5, 2.67 ERA
Projected margin
TB -0.2 · NYY +0.2
Model fair odds
NYY +106 · TB -106
Model Suggests Lean · 51.4%
Moneyline (Kalshi): New York Yankees (KA +125) — model 48.6% vs. devigged market 44.5% (+4.1pp edge)
Model vs. Market DraftKings, Polymarket, Kalshi · current line
Model fairDraftKingsPolymarketKalshi
NYY ML+106 +113 +120 +125
TB ML-106 -136 -120 -125
TB -1.5+187+169——
First 5 innings Kalshi · current line · devigged · model projects TB +0.4 thru 5
ModelModel fairKalshiKalshi oddsEdge
NYY leads37.6%+16635.5%+181+2.1pp
Tied16.1%+52218.3%+447-2.2pp
TB leads46.3%+11646.2%+116+0.1pp
81°F wind 7 mph
NYY Projected TB Projected

Why the Rays. Drew Rasmussen's arsenal plays well against how this Yankees lineup has handled similar pitch mixes.

The case for the Yankees. The Yankees bring the deeper lineup — tonight's nine average a .734 OPS against .734 for the Rays. The pitching matchup leans the Yankees' way with the Yankees starter on the mound.

Notes. New York Yankees note — Cody Bellinger: Bellinger went 2-for-5 with a three-run home run and an additional RBI during Wednesday's win over the Red Sox in Game 2 of the AL Wild Card Series. Luis García Jr. is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .189 — .226 wOBA vs. a .380 season mark. Spencer Jones is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .171 — .229 wOBA vs. a .400 season mark. Junior Caminero is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .257 — .316 wOBA vs. a .414 season mark. Liam Hicks is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .258 — .317 wOBA vs. a .382 season mark. There's measurable precipitation in the forecast — a rain-delay risk worth factoring into any live betting.

NYY NYY NEW YORK YANKEES — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 3, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PNot postedCAustinWells1BLuisGarcía Jr.2BJazzChisholm Jr.3BRyanMcMahonSSGeorgeLombard Jr.LFCodyBellingerCFTrentGrishamRFSpencerJones NYY @ TB / Oct 3, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
8 of 9 positions confirmed
TB TB TAMPA BAY RAYS — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 3, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PDrewRasmussen16-5 · 2.67 ERA · 172.0 IP0.91 WHIP · 174 SOCNickFortes1BJonathanAranda2BRichiePalacios3BJuniorCamineroSSJorgeMateoLFVictorMesa Jr.CFCedricMullinsRFJonnyDeLuca NYY @ TB / Oct 3, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
9 of 9 positions confirmed
NYY bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
Paul Blackburn1.591.08696218d ago
Brent Headrick2.181.21988108d ago
John Schreiber3.281.24406628d ago
Ryan Yarbrough3.691.22493838d ago
David Bednar2.471.047664358d ago
Will Warren3.921.371583208d ago
Gerrit Cole3.611.101312209d ago
Carlos Rodón2.671.069116011d ago
Cam Schlittler1.950.922393308d ago
Max Fried2.800.9910420010d ago
TB bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
Cam Booser1.980.76454206d ago
Kevin Kelly2.440.90637147d ago
Cole Sulser4.311.24565136d ago
Manuel Rodríguez2.702.1010606d ago
Bryan Baker1.440.916365417d ago
Brody Hopkins5.061.507606d ago
Steven Matz5.491.23613616d ago
Tyler Wells2.380.907257621d ago
Casey Legumina3.771.28555506d ago
Jesse Scholtens4.341.34371206d ago
Joe Boyle5.211.16214048d ago
Garrett Cleavinger4.791.435451228d ago
Ian Seymour4.211.131584726d ago
Shane McClanahan3.361.1210624029d ago
Griffin Jax3.531.181163406d ago
Nick Martinez3.101.091093106d ago
Freddy Peralta4.421.331563207d ago
NYY (away)
Projected · most recent complete lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Ben Rice DH.2644197.897
2Cody Bellinger LF.2641773.767
3Luis García Jr. 1B.2773092.830
4Spencer Jones RF.2451140.742
5George Lombard Jr. SS.237722.699
6Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B.2311955.711
7Trent Grisham CF.2111859.703
8Austin Wells C.1861432.624
9Ryan McMahon 3B.2131141.636
TB (home)
Projected · most recent complete lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Victor Mesa Jr. LF.2601434.825
2Jonathan Aranda 1B.2742292.792
3Junior Caminero 3B.27642101.884
4Liam Hicks DH.2841882.801
5Richie Palacios 2B.2351057.704
6Jonny DeLuca RF.2661150.729
7Cedric Mullins CF.2051548.628
8Nick Fortes C.258635.680
9Jorge Mateo SS.203518.559
7:30 PM CT
NLDS 'A' Game 1
American Family Field
San Diego Padres
91-71
TBD
—
@
Milwaukee Brewers
103-59
Jacob Misiorowski
16-5, 1.80 ERA
Projected margin
MIL -0.6 · SD +0.6
Model fair odds
SD +141 · MIL -141
Model Suggests Moderate · 58.4%
Moneyline (Kalshi): San Diego Padres (KA +190) — model 41.6% vs. devigged market 34.5% (+7.1pp edge)
Model vs. Market DraftKings, Polymarket, Kalshi · current line
Model fairDraftKingsPolymarketKalshi
SD ML+141 +187 +199 +190
MIL ML-141 -230 -199 -190
MIL -1.5+138+100——
First 5 innings Kalshi · current line · devigged · model projects MIL +1.1 thru 5
ModelModel fairKalshiKalshi oddsEdge
SD leads35.3%+18326.6%+275+8.7pp
Tied15.9%+52816.6%+503-0.7pp
MIL leads48.8%+10556.8%-131-8.0pp
57°F wind 6 mph
SD Projected MIL Projected

Why the Brewers. Over the full body of work, the Brewers (103-59) grade out as the stronger club than the Padres (91-71). Jacob Misiorowski's arsenal plays well against how this Padres lineup has handled similar pitch mixes. The Brewers come in playing the better recent baseball, on both sides of the ball.

The case for the Padres. The late innings tilt toward the Padres, whose available relievers carry a 3.17 ERA against 3.74 for the Brewers.

Notes. San Diego Padres note — Nick Pivetta: Pivetta didn't factor in the decision in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series against the Cubs on Wednesday. He allowed one run on three hits with four strikeouts and two walks over 3.1 innings. Ty France is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .282 — .312 wOBA vs. a .425 season mark.

SD SD SAN DIEGO PADRES — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 3, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PNot postedCEthanSalas1BTyFrance2BJakeCronenworth3BMannyMachadoSSXanderBogaertsLFDustinHarrisCFJacksonMerrillRFFernandoTatis Jr. SD @ MIL / Oct 3, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
8 of 9 positions confirmed
MIL MIL MILWAUKEE BREWERS — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 3, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PJacobMisiorowski16-5 · 1.80 ERA · 174.2 IP0.80 WHIP · 252 SOCGarySánchez1BJakeBauers2BBriceTurang3BDavidHamiltonSSCooperPrattLFJacksonChourioCFGarrettMitchellRFSalFrelick SD @ MIL / Oct 3, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
9 of 9 positions confirmed
SD bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
Yuki Matsui1.831.14685416d ago
David Morgan3.781.77393206d ago
Bradgley Rodriguez2.191.07816826d ago
Jason Adam2.621.17223827d ago
Adrian Morejon2.831.081077636d ago
Mason Miller1.670.9012966386d ago
Joe Musgrove736d ago
Robbie Ray3.591.351403109d ago
Walker Buehler4.631.351313206d ago
Nick Pivetta2.861.0142808d ago
Michael King3.211.1815932010d ago
MIL bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
Abner Uribe1.971.03626168d ago
Antonio Senzatela4.051.35605747d ago
JoJo Romero3.361.22545507d ago
Trevor Megill2.630.896963308d ago
Chad Patrick3.401.24935766d ago
Aaron Ashby3.121.311167547d ago
DL Hall1.911.04644706d ago
Kyle Harrison4.201.351412807d ago
Grant Anderson3.361.125252027d ago
Jared Koenig9.002.7179083d ago
Shane Drohan4.191.321253326d ago
Bryse Wilson4.331.33311608d ago
Brandon Sproat5.571.4410122024d ago
Coleman Crow5.301.451050115d ago
Dustin May4.701.321443107d ago
Robert Gasser3.871.191032108d ago
Logan Henderson2.470.8411018010d ago
SD (away)
Projected · most recent complete lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Fernando Tatis Jr. RF.2892583.828
2Dustin Harris LF.293019.736
3Manny Machado 3B.2173091.710
4Ty France 1B.2952172.865
5Jackson Merrill CF.2542687.743
6Xander Bogaerts SS.2311357.676
7Ethan Salas C.25625.737
8Austin Hays DH.280315.705
9Jake Cronenworth 2B.225741.629
MIL (home)
Projected · most recent complete lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Garrett Mitchell CF.2621165.770
2Jake Bauers 1B.2662686.873
3Jackson Chourio LF.2912575.838
4Brice Turang 2B.26821100.816
5Gary Sánchez C.2091238.771
6Christian Yelich DH.2351259.693
7Cooper Pratt SS.281334.718
8Sal Frelick RF.230440.614
9David Hamilton 3B.245426.650