Model projections, compared against the market

Tonight's Slate

October 11, 2026 — projected margins and win probabilities for every game, checked against DraftKings, Polymarket, and Kalshi. Updated Oct 11, 11:33 AM CT.
1Games
0Strong leans
0Moderate leans
1Toss-ups
7:00 PM CT
NLCS Game 1
American Family Field
Los Angeles Dodgers
100-62
Tarik Skubal
12-7, 2.72 ERA
@
Milwaukee Brewers
103-59
Jacob Misiorowski
16-5, 1.80 ERA
Projected margin
MIL -0.1 · LAD +0.1
Model fair odds
LAD +118 · MIL -118
Model Suggests Lean · 54.2%
Moneyline (Kalshi): Milwaukee Brewers (KA -102) — model 54.2% vs. devigged market 50.5% (+3.7pp edge)
Model vs. Market DraftKings, Polymarket, Kalshi · current line
Model fairDraftKingsPolymarketKalshi
LAD ML+118 -107 +106 +102
MIL ML-118 -113 -106 -102
MIL +1.5-179-204——
First 5 innings Kalshi · current line · devigged · model projects MIL +0.2 thru 5
ModelModel fairKalshiKalshi oddsEdge
LAD leads37.1%+16937.5%+167-0.4pp
Tied16.4%+50921.0%+376-4.6pp
MIL leads46.5%+11541.5%+141+5.0pp
65°F wind 4 mph
LAD Projected MIL Projected

Why the Brewers. The edge on the mound belongs to the Brewers: Jacob Misiorowski (1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 252 K) has been the better arm than Tarik Skubal (2.72 ERA, 0.96 WHIP). Over the full body of work, the Brewers (103-59) grade out as the stronger club than the Dodgers (100-62). The Brewers' lineup sets up well for this matchup, with its contact and plate discipline playing up tonight.

The case for the Dodgers. The late innings tilt toward the Dodgers, whose available relievers carry a 3.32 ERA against 3.52 for the Brewers. The Dodgers' relievers have the right stuff for this Brewers lineup — the pitch-mix matchup runs their way late.

Notes. Los Angeles Dodgers note — Tarik Skubal: Skubal will start Game 1 of the NLCS against the Brewers on Sunday, Jack Harris of the California Post reports. Milwaukee Brewers note — Jacob Misiorowski: Misiorowski will start Game 1 of the NLCS against the Dodgers on Sunday.

LAD LAD LOS ANGELES DODGERS — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 11, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PTarikSkubal12-7 · 2.72 ERA · 158.2 IP0.96 WHIP · 186 SOCWillSmith1BFreddieFreeman2BEnriqueHernández3BMaxMuncySSMookieBettsLFNot postedCFAndyPagesRFKyleTucker LAD @ MIL / Oct 11, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
8 of 9 positions confirmed
MIL MIL MILWAUKEE BREWERS — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 11, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PJacobMisiorowski16-5 · 1.80 ERA · 174.2 IP0.80 WHIP · 252 SOCWilliamContreras1BJakeBauers2BBriceTurang3BJoeyOrtizSSCooperPrattLFJacksonChourioCFGarrettMitchellRFLuisLara LAD @ MIL / Oct 11, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
9 of 9 positions confirmed
LAD bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
Alex Vesia2.641.077472314d ago
Brock Stewart2.701.012528115d ago
Evan Phillips3.461.083331114d ago
Edgardo Henriquez2.851.037161228d ago
Tanner Scott2.690.9982692515d ago
Edwin Díaz8.681.982821714d ago
Kris Bubic3.761.205614015d ago
Roki Sasaki4.491.3212326014d ago
Blake Snell1.901.10559015d ago
Yoshinobu Yamamoto2.530.8718228017d ago
Tyler Glasnow3.530.959813016d ago
Justin Wrobleski3.661.1411828014d ago
MIL bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
JoJo Romero3.361.225455015d ago
Antonio Senzatela4.051.356057415d ago
Abner Uribe1.971.036261616d ago
DL Hall1.911.046447014d ago
Trevor Megill2.630.8969633016d ago
Aaron Ashby3.121.3111675415d ago
Chad Patrick3.401.249357614d ago
Kyle Harrison4.201.3514128015d ago
Shane Drohan4.191.3212533214d ago
Dustin May4.701.3214431015d ago
Logan Henderson2.470.8411018018d ago
Robert Gasser3.871.1910321016d ago
LAD (away)
Projected · most recent complete lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Shohei Ohtani DH.2753081.889
2Mookie Betts SS.2572369.780
3Freddie Freeman 1B.2881670.792
4Will Smith C.2601034.781
5Max Muncy 3B.2522976.838
6Kyle Tucker RF.2331770.715
7Enrique Hernández 2B.222412.671
8Andy Pages CF.2742385.811
9Tommy Edman 2B.247842.714
MIL (home)
Projected · most recent complete lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Jackson Chourio LF.2912575.838
2Brice Turang 2B.26821100.816
3William Contreras C.2701894.758
4Gary Sánchez DH.2091238.771
5Jake Bauers 1B.2662686.873
6Luis Lara RF.246126.636
7Cooper Pratt SS.281334.718
8Garrett Mitchell CF.2621165.770
9Joey Ortiz 3B.270947.730