MLB Slate — October 5, 2026

4:00 PM CT

ALDS 'B' Game 2

Progressive Field

Chicago White Sox

84-78

Anthony Kay
10-9, 4.44 ERA

Cleveland Guardians

85-77

Gavin Williams
14-8, 3.76 ERA

CHW 38.3%

CLE 61.7%

Projected margin

CLE -1.0 · CHW +1.0

Model fair odds

CHW +161 · CLE -161

Model Suggests Strong · 61.7%

Moneyline (Kalshi): Cleveland Guardians (KA -144) — model 61.7% vs. devigged market 59.0% (+2.7pp edge)

Model vs. Market DraftKings, Polymarket, Kalshi · current line

	Model fair	DraftKings	Polymarket	Kalshi
CHW ML	+161	+130	+141	+144
CLE ML	-161	-157	-141	-144
CLE -1.5	+119	+149	—	—

First 5 innings Kalshi pregame close · devigged · model projects CLE +1.1 thru 5

	Model	Model fair	Kalshi	Kalshi odds	Edge
CHW leads	30.1%	+232	32.4%	+209	-2.2pp
Tied	15.9%	+530	19.6%	+410	-3.7pp
CLE leads	54.0%	-117	48.0%	+108	+5.9pp

62°F wind 9 mph

CHW Confirmed CLE Confirmed

Tonight’s Take

Why the Guardians. The edge on the mound belongs to the Guardians: Gavin Williams (3.76 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 248 K) has been the better arm than Anthony Kay (4.44 ERA, 1.37 WHIP). The late innings tilt toward the Guardians, whose available relievers carry a 3.38 ERA against 3.75 for the White Sox. The Guardians' lineup sets up well for this matchup, with its contact and plate discipline playing up tonight.

The case for the White Sox. Over the full body of work, the White Sox (84-78) grade out as the stronger club than the Guardians (85-77).

Notes. Chicago White Sox are going with a bullpen game: Sean Burke is lined up for the bulk innings behind opener Anthony Kay, so the relief matchup matters more than usual here.

Defensive alignment

9 of 9 positions confirmed

Full lineups & bullpens

CHW bullpen

Pitcher	ERA	WHIP	SO	G	SV	Last pitched
Tyler Davis	3.66	1.16	27	31	1	8d ago
Sean Newcomb	3.09	1.18	84	60	4	8d ago
Bryan Hudson	3.74	1.28	59	70	8	8d ago
Erick Fedde	3.83	1.35	99	33	0	11d ago
Jordan Hicks	3.94	1.54	64	53	1	8d ago
Noah Schultz	5.57	1.33	67	19	0	8d ago
David Sandlin	5.58	1.21	40	8	0	11d ago
Davis Martin	3.95	1.32	122	29	0	8d ago
Sean Burke BULK	3.34	1.20	185	32	0	9d ago
Grant Taylor	2.25	1.07	106	60	10	9d ago
Hagen Smith	1.29	0.96	41	18	0	9d ago

CLE bullpen

Pitcher	ERA	WHIP	SO	G	SV	Last pitched
Shawn Armstrong	4.58	1.39	34	41	0	8d ago
Matt Festa	3.78	1.31	69	66	1	9d ago
Tim Herrin	3.02	1.31	54	67	0	9d ago
Hunter Gaddis	2.98	1.28	57	68	1	9d ago
Daniel Espino	4.11	1.24	25	14	0	9d ago
Erik Sabrowski	2.61	1.18	76	60	1	9d ago
Cade Smith	1.95	0.96	107	69	41	8d ago
Joey Cantillo	3.62	1.42	171	33	0	10d ago
Foster Griffin	3.60	1.21	158	31	0	11d ago
Tanner Bibee	4.36	1.22	148	33	0	8d ago
Parker Messick	2.56	1.06	193	32	0	8d ago

CHW (away)

Confirmed · today's official lineup

	Batter	AVG	HR	RBI	OPS
1	Sam Antonacci LF	.277	8	48	.766
2	Kyle Teel C	.210	5	26	.697
3	Miguel Vargas 3B	.250	33	93	.837
4	Munetaka Murakami 1B	.207	35	77	.825
5	Andrew Benintendi DH	.240	15	78	.715
5	Randal Grichuk PH	.287	15	46	.880
6	Tristan Peters CF	.265	12	56	.774
7	Braden Montgomery RF	.226	6	38	.662
8	Chase Meidroth 2B	.276	16	63	.765
9	Colson Montgomery SS	.197	31	87	.685

CLE (home)

Confirmed · today's official lineup

	Batter	AVG	HR	RBI	OPS
1	Steven Kwan CF	.282	3	32	.731
2	José Ramírez 3B	.235	12	53	.688
3	Chase DeLauter RF	.287	16	67	.820
4	Jo Adell DH	.240	23	94	.699
5	Nathaniel Lowe 1B	.252	17	64	.761
6	Angel Martínez LF	.254	18	62	.755
7	Travis Bazzana 2B	.245	15	57	.743
8	Patrick Bailey C	.206	10	37	.607
9	Brayan Rocchio SS	.253	15	73	.704

7:00 PM CT

ALDS 'A' Game 2

Tropicana Field

New York Yankees

93-68

Cam Schlittler
14-6, 1.95 ERA

Tampa Bay Rays

98-64

Freddy Peralta
10-11, 4.42 ERA

NYY 50.6%

TB 49.4%

Projected margin

NYY -0.5 · TB +0.5

Model fair odds

NYY -102 · TB +102

Model Suggests Lean · 50.6%

Moneyline (Kalshi): Tampa Bay Rays (KA +111) — model 49.4% vs. devigged market 47.5% (+1.9pp edge)

Model vs. Market DraftKings, Polymarket, Kalshi · current line

	Model fair	DraftKings	Polymarket	Kalshi
NYY ML	-102	-125	-111	-111
TB ML	+102	+104	+111	+111
TB +1.5	-146	-172	—	—

First 5 innings Kalshi · current line · devigged · model projects NYY +0.4 thru 5

	Model	Model fair	Kalshi	Kalshi odds	Edge
NYY leads	38.5%	+160	46.7%	+114	-8.2pp
Tied	16.6%	+501	19.6%	+410	-3.0pp
TB leads	44.9%	+123	33.7%	+197	+11.2pp

82°F wind 3 mph

NYY Confirmed TB Confirmed

Tonight’s Take

Why the Yankees. The edge on the mound belongs to the Yankees: Cam Schlittler (1.95 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 239 K) has been the better arm than Freddy Peralta (4.42 ERA, 1.33 WHIP). The Yankees' lineup sets up well for this matchup, with its contact and plate discipline playing up tonight. Over the full body of work, the Yankees (93-68) grade out as the stronger club than the Rays (98-64).

The case for the Rays. How the two bullpens line up tonight favors the Rays, with the arms they're likely to use in good shape.

Notes. New York Yankees note — Carlos Rodon: Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Monday that Rodon is lineup up to start potential Game 4 of the ALDS versus the Rays on Thursday, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports. Tampa Bay Rays note — Jonny DeLuca: DeLuca will start in center field and bat seventh Monday in Game 2 of the ALDS against the Yankees. Tampa Bay Rays' starter has looked flatter lately — getting hit harder over his last 3 starts (20.3% called-strike+whiff rate, vs. 24.8% on the season). Luis García Jr. is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .171 — .214 wOBA vs. a .378 season mark. Spencer Jones is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .184 — .246 wOBA vs. a .396 season mark. Junior Caminero is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .235 — .290 wOBA vs. a .413 season mark.

Defensive alignment

9 of 9 positions confirmed

Full lineups & bullpens

NYY bullpen

Pitcher	ERA	WHIP	SO	G	SV	Last pitched
John Schreiber	3.28	1.24	40	66	2	10d ago
David Bednar	2.47	1.04	76	64	35	10d ago
Brent Headrick	2.18	1.21	98	81	0	10d ago
Ryan Yarbrough	3.69	1.22	49	38	3	10d ago
Paul Blackburn	1.59	1.08	69	62	1	10d ago
Will Warren	3.92	1.37	158	32	0	10d ago
Ryan Weathers	3.60	1.22	143	25	0	44d ago
Carlos Rodón	2.67	1.06	91	16	0	13d ago
Max Fried	2.80	0.99	104	20	0	13d ago
Gerrit Cole	3.61	1.10	131	22	0	12d ago

TB bullpen

Pitcher	ERA	WHIP	SO	G	SV	Last pitched
Cam Booser	1.98	0.76	45	42	0	9d ago
Kevin Kelly	2.44	0.90	63	71	4	10d ago
Cole Sulser	4.31	1.24	56	51	3	9d ago
Tyler Wells	2.38	0.90	72	57	6	23d ago
Steven Matz	5.49	1.23	61	36	1	9d ago
Garrett Cleavinger	4.79	1.43	54	51	2	30d ago
Bryan Baker	1.44	0.91	63	65	41	10d ago
Ian Seymour	4.21	1.13	158	47	2	8d ago
Griffin Jax	3.53	1.18	116	34	0	9d ago
Nick Martinez	3.10	1.09	109	31	0	8d ago
Drew Rasmussen	2.67	0.91	174	30	0	13d ago

NYY (away)

Confirmed · today's official lineup

	Batter	AVG	HR	RBI	OPS
1	Ben Rice DH	.264	41	97	.897
2	Cody Bellinger LF	.264	17	73	.767
3	Luis García Jr. 1B	.277	30	92	.830
4	Spencer Jones RF	.245	11	40	.742
5	George Lombard Jr. SS	.237	7	22	.699
6	Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B	.231	19	55	.711
7	Trent Grisham CF	.211	18	59	.703
8	Austin Wells C	.186	14	32	.624
9	Ryan McMahon 3B	.213	11	41	.636

TB (home)

Confirmed · today's official lineup

	Batter	AVG	HR	RBI	OPS
1	Yandy Díaz DH	.293	22	85	.805
2	Jonathan Aranda 1B	.274	22	92	.792
3	Junior Caminero 3B	.276	42	101	.884
4	Liam Hicks C	.284	18	82	.801
5	Chandler Simpson LF	.306	0	38	.689
6	Victor Mesa Jr. RF	.260	14	34	.825
7	Jonny DeLuca CF	.266	11	50	.729
8	Richie Palacios 2B	.235	10	57	.704
9	Taylor Walls SS	.222	2	36	.607

Tonight's Slate