12-9, 2.56 ERA
10-11, 4.42 ERA
| Model fair | DraftKings | Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE ML | -106 | +113 | +125 | +130 |
| TB ML | +106 | -137 | -125 | -130 |
| TB -1.5 | +212 | +162 | — | — |
| Model | Model fair | Kalshi | Kalshi odds | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE leads | 42.2% | +137 | 38.3% | +161 | +3.9pp |
| Tied | 16.0% | +525 | 18.4% | +443 | -2.4pp |
| TB leads | 41.8% | +139 | 43.3% | +131 | -1.5pp |
Why the Guardians. The edge on the mound belongs to the Guardians: Parker Messick (2.56 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 193 K) has been the better arm than Freddy Peralta (4.42 ERA, 1.33 WHIP). The Guardians bring the deeper lineup — tonight's nine average a .723 OPS against .722 for the Rays. Parker Messick's arsenal plays well against how this Rays lineup has handled similar pitch mixes.
The case for the Rays. Over the full body of work, the Rays (98-64) grade out as the stronger club than the Guardians (85-77).
Notes. Cleveland Guardians note — Slade Cecconi: Cecconi has been added to the Guardians' roster for the ALCS, Tim Stebbins of MLB.com reports. Tampa Bay Rays note — Chandler Simpson: Simpson is absent from the lineup Monday in Game 1 of the ALCS against the Guardians. Junior Caminero is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .286 — .341 wOBA vs. a .412 season mark. Ryan Vilade is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .138 — .324 wOBA vs. a .419 season mark.
| Pitcher | ERA | WHIP | SO | G | SV | Last pitched |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Herrin | 3.02 | 1.31 | 54 | 67 | 0 | 18d ago |
| Shawn Armstrong | 4.58 | 1.39 | 34 | 41 | 0 | 17d ago |
| Matt Festa | 3.78 | 1.31 | 69 | 66 | 1 | 18d ago |
| Slade Cecconi | 4.91 | 1.43 | 99 | 28 | 0 | 17d ago |
| Daniel Espino | 4.11 | 1.24 | 25 | 14 | 0 | 18d ago |
| Erik Sabrowski | 2.61 | 1.18 | 76 | 60 | 1 | 18d ago |
| Cade Smith | 1.95 | 0.96 | 107 | 69 | 41 | 17d ago |
| Tanner Bibee | 4.36 | 1.22 | 148 | 33 | 0 | 17d ago |
| Hunter Gaddis | 2.98 | 1.28 | 57 | 68 | 1 | 18d ago |
| Joey Cantillo | 3.62 | 1.42 | 171 | 33 | 0 | 19d ago |
| Gavin Williams | 3.76 | 1.11 | 248 | 32 | 0 | 18d ago |
| Foster Griffin | 3.60 | 1.21 | 158 | 31 | 0 | 20d ago |
| Pitcher | ERA | WHIP | SO | G | SV | Last pitched |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Baker | 1.44 | 0.91 | 63 | 65 | 41 | 18d ago |
| Steven Matz | 5.49 | 1.23 | 61 | 36 | 1 | 17d ago |
| Cam Booser | 1.98 | 0.76 | 45 | 42 | 0 | 17d ago |
| Brody Hopkins | 5.06 | 1.50 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 17d ago |
| Kevin Kelly | 2.44 | 0.90 | 63 | 71 | 4 | 18d ago |
| Tyler Wells | 2.38 | 0.90 | 72 | 57 | 6 | 31d ago |
| Griffin Jax | 3.53 | 1.18 | 116 | 34 | 0 | 17d ago |
| Ian Seymour | 4.21 | 1.13 | 158 | 47 | 2 | 16d ago |
| Cole Sulser | 4.31 | 1.24 | 56 | 51 | 3 | 17d ago |
| Nick Martinez | 3.10 | 1.09 | 109 | 31 | 0 | 16d ago |
| Drew Rasmussen | 2.67 | 0.91 | 174 | 30 | 0 | 21d ago |
| Batter | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steven Kwan CF | .282 | 3 | 32 | .731 |
| 2 | José Ramírez 3B | .235 | 12 | 53 | .688 |
| 3 | Chase DeLauter RF | .287 | 16 | 67 | .820 |
| 4 | Jo Adell DH | .240 | 23 | 94 | .699 |
| 5 | Nathaniel Lowe 1B | .252 | 17 | 64 | .761 |
| 6 | Angel Martínez LF | .254 | 18 | 62 | .755 |
| 7 | Travis Bazzana 2B | .245 | 15 | 57 | .743 |
| 8 | Patrick Bailey C | .206 | 10 | 37 | .607 |
| 9 | Brayan Rocchio SS | .253 | 15 | 73 | .704 |
| Batter | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yandy Díaz DH | .293 | 22 | 85 | .805 |
| 2 | Jonathan Aranda 1B | .274 | 22 | 92 | .792 |
| 3 | Junior Caminero 3B | .276 | 42 | 101 | .884 |
| 4 | Ryan Vilade RF | .245 | 11 | 43 | .750 |
| 5 | Jonny DeLuca CF | .266 | 11 | 50 | .729 |
| 6 | Chandler Simpson LF | .306 | 0 | 38 | .689 |
| 7 | Nick Fortes C | .258 | 6 | 35 | .680 |
| 8 | Jorge Mateo 2B | .203 | 5 | 18 | .559 |
| 9 | Taylor Walls SS | .222 | 2 | 36 | .607 |