12-10, 3.21 ERA
11-3, 2.47 ERA
| Model fair | DraftKings | Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD ML | +131 | +113 | +125 | +127 |
| MIL ML | -131 | -136 | -125 | -127 |
| MIL -1.5 | +148 | +162 | — | — |
| Model | Model fair | Kalshi | Kalshi odds | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD leads | 35.8% | +180 | 36.5% | +174 | -0.7pp |
| Tied | 16.2% | +518 | 17.2% | +480 | -1.1pp |
| MIL leads | 48.1% | +108 | 46.3% | +116 | +1.8pp |
Why the Brewers. Over the full body of work, the Brewers (103-59) grade out as the stronger club than the Padres (91-71). The edge on the mound belongs to the Brewers: Logan Henderson (2.47 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 110 K) has been the better arm than Michael King (3.21 ERA, 1.18 WHIP). The Brewers come in playing the better recent baseball, on both sides of the ball.
The case for the Padres. The late innings tilt toward the Padres, whose available relievers carry a 2.99 ERA against 3.36 for the Brewers.
Notes. San Diego Padres note — Gavin Sheets: Sheets was added to San Diego's lineup for Game 2 of the NLDS at Milwaukee on Sunday, batting sixth as the designated hitter . Milwaukee Brewers note — Luis Lara: Lara is not in the lineup for Game 2 of the NLDS against the Padres on Sunday. Ty France is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .237 — .278 wOBA vs. a .424 season mark. Jake Bauers is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .265 — .335 wOBA vs. a .448 season mark.
| Pitcher | ERA | WHIP | SO | G | SV | Last pitched |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Morgan | 3.78 | 1.77 | 39 | 32 | 0 | 7d ago |
| Mason Miller | 1.67 | 0.90 | 129 | 66 | 38 | 7d ago |
| Joe Musgrove | 737d ago | |||||
| Yuki Matsui | 1.83 | 1.14 | 68 | 54 | 1 | 7d ago |
| Jason Adam | 2.62 | 1.17 | 22 | 38 | 2 | 8d ago |
| Randy Vásquez | 3.90 | 1.27 | 87 | 32 | 0 | 7d ago |
| Bradgley Rodriguez | 2.19 | 1.07 | 81 | 68 | 2 | 7d ago |
| Adrian Morejon | 2.83 | 1.08 | 107 | 76 | 3 | 7d ago |
| Nick Pivetta | 2.86 | 1.01 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 9d ago |
| Robbie Ray | 3.59 | 1.35 | 140 | 31 | 0 | 10d ago |
| Pitcher | ERA | WHIP | SO | G | SV | Last pitched |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JoJo Romero | 3.36 | 1.22 | 54 | 55 | 0 | 7d ago |
| Chad Patrick | 3.40 | 1.24 | 93 | 57 | 6 | 7d ago |
| Kyle Harrison | 4.20 | 1.35 | 141 | 28 | 0 | 7d ago |
| Shane Drohan | 4.19 | 1.32 | 125 | 33 | 2 | 7d ago |
| Antonio Senzatela | 4.05 | 1.35 | 60 | 57 | 4 | 7d ago |
| Trevor Megill | 2.63 | 0.89 | 69 | 63 | 30 | 8d ago |
| Abner Uribe | 1.97 | 1.03 | 62 | 61 | 6 | 8d ago |
| DL Hall | 1.91 | 1.04 | 64 | 47 | 0 | 7d ago |
| Aaron Ashby | 3.12 | 1.31 | 116 | 75 | 4 | 7d ago |
| Dustin May | 4.70 | 1.32 | 144 | 31 | 0 | 7d ago |
| Robert Gasser | 3.87 | 1.19 | 103 | 21 | 0 | 8d ago |
| Jacob Misiorowski | 1.80 | 0.80 | 252 | 30 | 0 | 7d ago |
| Batter | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Tatis Jr. RF | .289 | 25 | 83 | .828 |
| 2 | Dustin Harris LF | .293 | 0 | 19 | .736 |
| 3 | Manny Machado 3B | .217 | 30 | 91 | .710 |
| 4 | Ty France 1B | .295 | 21 | 72 | .865 |
| 5 | Jackson Merrill CF | .254 | 26 | 87 | .743 |
| 6 | Gavin Sheets DH | .212 | 17 | 48 | .710 |
| 6 | Austin Hays DH | .280 | 3 | 15 | .705 |
| 6 | Samad Taylor DH | .316 | 2 | 18 | .798 |
| 7 | Xander Bogaerts SS | .231 | 13 | 57 | .676 |
| 8 | Luis Campusano C | .265 | 8 | 30 | .796 |
| 8 | Freddy Fermin C | .203 | 4 | 24 | .589 |
| 9 | Jake Cronenworth 2B | .225 | 7 | 41 | .629 |
| Batter | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson Chourio LF | .291 | 25 | 75 | .838 |
| 2 | Brice Turang 2B | .268 | 21 | 100 | .816 |
| 3 | Jake Bauers 1B | .266 | 26 | 86 | .873 |
| 4 | William Contreras C | .270 | 18 | 94 | .758 |
| 5 | Garrett Mitchell CF | .262 | 11 | 65 | .770 |
| 6 | Christian Yelich DH | .235 | 12 | 59 | .693 |
| 7 | Sal Frelick RF | .230 | 4 | 40 | .614 |
| 8 | Cooper Pratt SS | .281 | 3 | 34 | .718 |
| 9 | David Hamilton 3B | .245 | 4 | 26 | .650 |