Model projections, compared against the market

Tonight's Slate

October 4, 2026 — projected margins and win probabilities for every game, checked against DraftKings, Polymarket, and Kalshi. Updated Oct 4, 6:07 PM CT.
2Games
1Strong leans
1Moderate leans
0Toss-ups
3:00 PM CT
NLDS 'A' Game 2
American Family Field
San Diego Padres
91-71
Michael King
12-10, 3.21 ERA
@
Milwaukee Brewers
103-59
Logan Henderson
11-3, 2.47 ERA
Projected margin
MIL -0.4 · SD +0.4
Model fair odds
SD +131 · MIL -131
Model Suggests Moderate · 56.8%
Moneyline (Kalshi): Milwaukee Brewers (KA -127) — model 56.8% vs. devigged market 56.0% (+0.8pp edge)
Model vs. Market DraftKings, Polymarket, Kalshi · current line
Model fairDraftKingsPolymarketKalshi
SD ML+131 +113 +125 +127
MIL ML-131 -136 -125 -127
MIL -1.5+148+162——
First 5 innings Kalshi pregame close · devigged · model projects MIL +0.4 thru 5
ModelModel fairKalshiKalshi oddsEdge
SD leads35.8%+18036.5%+174-0.7pp
Tied16.2%+51817.2%+480-1.1pp
MIL leads48.1%+10846.3%+116+1.8pp
69°F wind 12 mph
SD Confirmed MIL Confirmed

Why the Brewers. Over the full body of work, the Brewers (103-59) grade out as the stronger club than the Padres (91-71). The edge on the mound belongs to the Brewers: Logan Henderson (2.47 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 110 K) has been the better arm than Michael King (3.21 ERA, 1.18 WHIP). The Brewers come in playing the better recent baseball, on both sides of the ball.

The case for the Padres. The late innings tilt toward the Padres, whose available relievers carry a 2.99 ERA against 3.36 for the Brewers.

Notes. San Diego Padres note — Gavin Sheets: Sheets was added to San Diego's lineup for Game 2 of the NLDS at Milwaukee on Sunday, batting sixth as the designated hitter . Milwaukee Brewers note — Luis Lara: Lara is not in the lineup for Game 2 of the NLDS against the Padres on Sunday. Ty France is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .237 — .278 wOBA vs. a .424 season mark. Jake Bauers is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .265 — .335 wOBA vs. a .448 season mark.

SD SD SAN DIEGO PADRES — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 4, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PMichaelKing12-10 · 3.21 ERA · 185.0 IP1.18 WHIP · 159 SOCLuisCampusano1BTyFrance2BJakeCronenworth3BMannyMachadoSSXanderBogaertsLFDustinHarrisCFJacksonMerrillRFFernandoTatis Jr. SD @ MIL / Oct 4, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
9 of 9 positions confirmed
MIL MIL MILWAUKEE BREWERS — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 4, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PLoganHenderson11-3 · 2.47 ERA · 98.1 IP0.84 WHIP · 110 SOCWilliamContreras1BJakeBauers2BBriceTurang3BDavidHamiltonSSCooperPrattLFJacksonChourioCFGarrettMitchellRFSalFrelick SD @ MIL / Oct 4, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
9 of 9 positions confirmed
SD bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
David Morgan3.781.77393207d ago
Mason Miller1.670.9012966387d ago
Joe Musgrove737d ago
Yuki Matsui1.831.14685417d ago
Jason Adam2.621.17223828d ago
Randy Vásquez3.901.27873207d ago
Bradgley Rodriguez2.191.07816827d ago
Adrian Morejon2.831.081077637d ago
Nick Pivetta2.861.0142809d ago
Robbie Ray3.591.3514031010d ago
MIL bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
JoJo Romero3.361.22545507d ago
Chad Patrick3.401.24935767d ago
Kyle Harrison4.201.351412807d ago
Shane Drohan4.191.321253327d ago
Antonio Senzatela4.051.35605747d ago
Trevor Megill2.630.896963308d ago
Abner Uribe1.971.03626168d ago
DL Hall1.911.04644707d ago
Aaron Ashby3.121.311167547d ago
Dustin May4.701.321443107d ago
Robert Gasser3.871.191032108d ago
Jacob Misiorowski1.800.802523007d ago
SD (away)
Confirmed · today's official lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Fernando Tatis Jr. RF.2892583.828
2Dustin Harris LF.293019.736
3Manny Machado 3B.2173091.710
4Ty France 1B.2952172.865
5Jackson Merrill CF.2542687.743
6Gavin Sheets DH.2121748.710
6Austin Hays DH.280315.705
6Samad Taylor DH.316218.798
7Xander Bogaerts SS.2311357.676
8Luis Campusano C.265830.796
8Freddy Fermin C.203424.589
9Jake Cronenworth 2B.225741.629
MIL (home)
Confirmed · today's official lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Jackson Chourio LF.2912575.838
2Brice Turang 2B.26821100.816
3Jake Bauers 1B.2662686.873
4William Contreras C.2701894.758
5Garrett Mitchell CF.2621165.770
6Christian Yelich DH.2351259.693
7Sal Frelick RF.230440.614
8Cooper Pratt SS.281334.718
9David Hamilton 3B.245426.650
7:00 PM CT
NLDS 'B' Game 2
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Atlanta Braves
94-68
Ray Kerr
0-0, 1.47 ERA
@
Los Angeles Dodgers
100-62
Blake Snell
4-1, 1.90 ERA
Projected margin
LAD -2.5 · ATL +2.5
Model fair odds
ATL +269 · LAD -269
Model Suggests Strong · 72.9%
Moneyline (Kalshi): Los Angeles Dodgers (KA -217) — model 72.9% vs. devigged market 68.5% (+4.4pp edge)
Model vs. Market DraftKings, Polymarket, Kalshi · current line
Model fairDraftKingsPolymarketKalshi
ATL ML+269 +173 +217 +217
LAD ML-269 -212 -217 -217
LAD -1.5-146-102——
First 5 innings Kalshi · current line · devigged · model projects LAD +1.6 thru 5
ModelModel fairKalshiKalshi oddsEdge
ATL leads25.6%+29028.4%+253-2.7pp
Tied15.7%+53715.4%+548+0.3pp
LAD leads58.7%-14256.2%-128+2.4pp
96°F wind 7 mph
ATL Confirmed LAD Confirmed

Why the Dodgers. Don't read too much into the surface numbers on the mound — Blake Snell (1.90 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 55 K) has a better underlying profile than his ERA suggests, and we like him more than Ray Kerr (1.47 ERA, 0.60 WHIP) tonight. The Dodgers' relievers have the right stuff for this Braves lineup — the pitch-mix matchup runs their way late. The Dodgers bring the deeper lineup — tonight's nine average a .772 OPS against .729 for the Braves.

Notes. Atlanta Braves note — Chris Sale: Sale is expected to start Game 3 of the NLDS against the Dodgers on Tuesday, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. Los Angeles Dodgers note — Max Muncy: Muncy is out of the lineup for Game 2 of the NLDS against Atlanta on Sunday, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports. Matt Olson is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .171 — .234 wOBA vs. a .390 season mark. Will Smith is running hot over his last 10 games, batting .343 — .449 wOBA vs. a .382 season mark. Freddie Freeman is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .231 — .248 wOBA vs. a .387 season mark. Atlanta Braves are going with a bullpen game: Grant Holmes is lined up for the bulk innings behind opener Ray Kerr, so the relief matchup matters more than usual here.

ATL ATL ATLANTA BRAVES — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 4, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PRayKerr0-0 · 1.47 ERA · 18.1 IP0.60 WHIP · 11 SOCDrakeBaldwin1BMattOlson2BOzzieAlbies3BAustinRileySSMauricioDubónLFLaneThomasCFMichaelHarris IIRFRonaldAcuña Jr. ATL @ LAD / Oct 4, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
9 of 9 positions confirmed
LAD LAD LOS ANGELES DODGERS — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 4, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PBlakeSnell4-1 · 1.90 ERA · 42.2 IP1.10 WHIP · 55 SOCWillSmith1BFreddieFreeman2BTommyEdman3BMiguelRojasSSMookieBettsLFTeoscarHernándezCFAndyPagesRFKyleTucker ATL @ LAD / Oct 4, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
9 of 9 positions confirmed
ATL bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
Dylan Lee3.090.97777108d ago
Robert Suarez1.060.88263348d ago
Raisel Iglesias2.551.086459348d ago
Didier Fuentes2.451.10925839d ago
Victor Mederos3.411.19343018d ago
JR Ritchie4.911.47681717d ago
Grant Holmes BULK3.441.311153109d ago
Brent Suter3.361.22785408d ago
Chris Sale2.160.9820027011d ago
Dylan Dodd2.540.91534828d ago
AJ Smith-Shawver6.611.5327907d ago
Tyler Mahle3.991.2313727010d ago
LAD bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
Edgardo Henriquez2.851.037161221d ago
Edwin Díaz8.681.98282177d ago
Roki Sasaki4.491.321232607d ago
Kris Bubic3.761.20561408d ago
Tanner Scott2.690.998269258d ago
Alex Vesia2.641.07747237d ago
Brock Stewart2.701.01252818d ago
Evan Phillips3.461.08333117d ago
Yoshinobu Yamamoto2.530.8718228010d ago
Tyler Glasnow3.530.95981309d ago
Tarik Skubal2.720.961862608d ago
ATL (away)
Confirmed · today's official lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Drake Baldwin C.2842579.817
2Ronald Acuña Jr. RF.2552055.796
3Matt Olson 1B.2514193.823
4Ozzie Albies 2B.2372273.685
5Michael Harris II CF.2942687.812
6Mauricio Dubón SS.2761273.720
7Sean Murphy DH.182310.556
8Austin Riley 3B.2191972.654
9Lane Thomas LF.2241140.701
LAD (home)
Confirmed · today's official lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Mookie Betts SS.2572369.780
2Shohei Ohtani DH.2753081.889
3Will Smith C.2601034.781
4Freddie Freeman 1B.2881670.792
5Teoscar Hernández LF.2671664.759
6Kyle Tucker RF.2331770.715
7Andy Pages CF.2742385.811
8Miguel Rojas 3B.267423.703
9Tommy Edman 2B.247842.714