Model projections, compared against the market

Tonight's Slate

October 6, 2026 — projected margins and win probabilities for every game, checked against DraftKings, Polymarket, and Kalshi. Updated Oct 5, 10:43 PM CT.
2Games
0Strong leans
1Moderate leans
1Toss-ups
5:00 PM CT
NLDS 'B' Game 3
Truist Park
Los Angeles Dodgers
100-62
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
14-9, 2.53 ERA
@
Atlanta Braves
94-68
Chris Sale
14-9, 2.16 ERA
Projected margin
LAD -1.1 · ATL +1.1
Model fair odds
LAD -129 · ATL +129
Model Suggests Moderate · 56.2%
Moneyline (Kalshi): Los Angeles Dodgers (KA -102) — model 56.2% vs. devigged market 50.5% (+5.7pp edge)
Model vs. Market DraftKings, Polymarket, Kalshi · current line
Model fairDraftKingsPolymarketKalshi
LAD ML-129 -114 -102 -102
ATL ML+129 -105 +102 +102
ATL +1.5-114-184——
First 5 innings Kalshi · current line · devigged · model projects ATL +0.0 thru 5
ModelModel fairKalshiKalshi oddsEdge
LAD leads39.4%+15439.9%+151-0.5pp
Tied16.4%+51019.2%+421-2.8pp
ATL leads44.2%+12640.9%+144+3.3pp
74°F wind 4 mph
LAD Projected ATL Projected

Why the Dodgers. The Dodgers' relievers have the right stuff for this Braves lineup — the pitch-mix matchup runs their way late. Over the full body of work, the Dodgers (100-62) grade out as the stronger club than the Braves (94-68). The late innings tilt toward the Dodgers, whose available relievers carry a 3.33 ERA against 3.40 for the Braves.

The case for the Braves. The edge on the mound belongs to the Braves: Chris Sale (2.16 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 200 K) has been the better arm than Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.53 ERA, 0.87 WHIP).

Notes. Los Angeles Dodgers note — Blake Snell: Snell didn't factor in the decision in Game 2 of the NLDS against Atlanta on Sunday. He gave up a run on three hits with five strikeouts and five walks over 3.2 innings. Atlanta Braves note — Chris Sale: Sale is expected to start Game 3 of the NLDS against the Dodgers on Tuesday, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. Atlanta Braves' starter has looked sharper lately — missing more bats over his last 3 starts (36.6% called-strike+whiff rate, vs. 31.7% on the season). Will Smith is running hot over his last 10 games, batting .343 — .449 wOBA vs. a .376 season mark. Freddie Freeman is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .225 — .263 wOBA vs. a .389 season mark. Matt Olson is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .171 — .245 wOBA vs. a .390 season mark.

LAD LAD LOS ANGELES DODGERS — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 6, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PYoshinobuYamamoto14-9 · 2.53 ERA · 185.0 IP0.87 WHIP · 182 SOCWillSmith1BFreddieFreeman2BTommyEdman3BMiguelRojasSSMookieBettsLFTeoscarHernándezCFAndyPagesRFKyleTucker LAD @ ATL / Oct 6, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
9 of 9 positions confirmed
ATL ATL ATLANTA BRAVES — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 6, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PChrisSale14-9 · 2.16 ERA · 162.2 IP0.98 WHIP · 200 SOCDrakeBaldwin1BMattOlson2BOzzieAlbies3BAustinRileySSMauricioDubónLFLaneThomasCFMichaelHarris IIRFRonaldAcuña Jr. LAD @ ATL / Oct 6, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
9 of 9 positions confirmed
LAD bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
Alex Vesia2.641.07747239d ago
Tanner Scott2.690.9982692510d ago
Edwin Díaz8.681.98282179d ago
Edgardo Henriquez2.851.037161223d ago
Evan Phillips3.461.08333119d ago
Brock Stewart2.701.012528110d ago
Kris Bubic3.761.205614010d ago
Roki Sasaki4.491.321232609d ago
Tyler Glasnow3.530.959813011d ago
Blake Snell1.901.10559010d ago
Tarik Skubal2.720.9618626010d ago
ATL bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
Victor Mederos3.411.193430110d ago
Robert Suarez1.060.882633410d ago
Raisel Iglesias2.551.0864593410d ago
Dylan Lee3.090.977771010d ago
Brent Suter3.361.227854010d ago
Dylan Dodd2.540.915348210d ago
JR Ritchie4.911.47681719d ago
Grant Holmes3.441.3111531010d ago
AJ Smith-Shawver6.611.5327909d ago
Didier Fuentes2.451.109258310d ago
Ray Kerr1.470.60119010d ago
Tyler Mahle3.991.2313727011d ago
LAD (away)
Projected · most recent complete lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Mookie Betts SS.2572369.780
2Shohei Ohtani DH.2753081.889
3Will Smith C.2601034.781
4Freddie Freeman 1B.2881670.792
5Teoscar Hernández LF.2671664.759
6Kyle Tucker RF.2331770.715
7Andy Pages CF.2742385.811
8Miguel Rojas 3B.267423.703
9Tommy Edman 2B.247842.714
ATL (home)
Projected · most recent complete lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Drake Baldwin C.2842579.817
2Ronald Acuña Jr. RF.2552055.796
3Matt Olson 1B.2514193.823
4Ozzie Albies 2B.2372273.685
5Michael Harris II CF.2942687.812
6Mauricio Dubón SS.2761273.720
7Sean Murphy DH.182310.556
8Austin Riley 3B.2191972.654
9Lane Thomas LF.2241140.701
8:30 PM CT
NLDS 'A' Game 3
Petco Park
Milwaukee Brewers
103-59
Dustin May
7-9, 4.70 ERA
@
San Diego Padres
91-71
Nick Pivetta
3-2, 2.86 ERA
Projected margin
SD -0.0 · MIL +0.0
Model fair odds
MIL +116 · SD -116
Model Suggests Lean · 53.6%
Moneyline (Kalshi): Milwaukee Brewers (KA +125) — model 46.4% vs. devigged market 44.5% (+1.9pp edge)
Model vs. Market DraftKings, Polymarket, Kalshi · current line
Model fairDraftKingsPolymarketKalshi
MIL ML+116 +113 +120 +125
SD ML-116 -136 -120 -125
SD -1.5+170+164——
First 5 innings Kalshi · current line · devigged · model projects SD +0.7 thru 5
ModelModel fairKalshiKalshi oddsEdge
MIL leads36.3%+17537.1%+170-0.7pp
Tied16.3%+51517.8%+463-1.5pp
SD leads47.4%+11145.2%+121+2.2pp
85°F wind 7 mph
MIL Projected SD Projected

Why the Padres. The edge on the mound belongs to the Padres: Nick Pivetta (2.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 42 K) has been the better arm than Dustin May (4.70 ERA, 1.32 WHIP). Nick Pivetta's arsenal plays well against how this Brewers lineup has handled similar pitch mixes. The late innings tilt toward the Padres, whose available relievers carry a 3.04 ERA against 3.11 for the Brewers.

The case for the Brewers. Over the full body of work, the Brewers (103-59) grade out as the stronger club than the Padres (91-71). The Brewers bring the deeper lineup — tonight's nine average a .748 OPS against .744 for the Padres.

Notes. Milwaukee Brewers note — Logan Henderson: Henderson didn't factor in the decision after giving up two runs (one earned) on two hits over five innings during Game 2 of the NLDS against the Padres on Sunday. He struck out four and walked three. San Diego Padres note — Michael King: King didn't factor into the decision in Game 2 of the NLDS versus the Brewers on Sunday. He struck out six, allowing one run on three hits and no walks over five-plus innings. Jake Bauers is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .229 — .278 wOBA vs. a .445 season mark. Ty France is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .297 — .336 wOBA vs. a .426 season mark.

MIL MIL MILWAUKEE BREWERS — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 6, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PDustinMay7-9 · 4.70 ERA · 145.2 IP1.32 WHIP · 144 SOCWilliamContreras1BJakeBauers2BBriceTurang3BDavidHamiltonSSCooperPrattLFJacksonChourioCFGarrettMitchellRFSalFrelick MIL @ SD / Oct 6, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
9 of 9 positions confirmed
SD SD SAN DIEGO PADRES — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 6, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PNickPivetta3-2 · 2.86 ERA · 34.2 IP1.01 WHIP · 42 SOCLuisCampusano1BTyFrance2BJakeCronenworth3BMannyMachadoSSXanderBogaertsLFDustinHarrisCFJacksonMerrillRFFernandoTatis Jr. MIL @ SD / Oct 6, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
9 of 9 positions confirmed
MIL bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
Antonio Senzatela4.051.356057410d ago
DL Hall1.911.04644709d ago
Chad Patrick3.401.24935769d ago
JoJo Romero3.361.225455010d ago
Kyle Harrison4.201.3514128010d ago
Shane Drohan4.191.321253329d ago
Trevor Megill2.630.8969633011d ago
Aaron Ashby3.121.3111675410d ago
Abner Uribe1.971.036261611d ago
Robert Gasser3.871.1910321011d ago
Jacob Misiorowski1.800.802523009d ago
Logan Henderson2.470.8411018013d ago
SD bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
David Morgan3.781.773932010d ago
Adrian Morejon2.831.0810776310d ago
Jason Adam2.621.172238210d ago
Joe Musgrove739d ago
Bradgley Rodriguez2.191.078168210d ago
Randy Vásquez3.901.27873209d ago
Yuki Matsui1.831.146854110d ago
Mason Miller1.670.90129663810d ago
Robbie Ray3.591.3514031012d ago
Michael King3.211.1815932013d ago
MIL (away)
Projected · most recent complete lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Jackson Chourio LF.2912575.838
2Brice Turang 2B.26821100.816
3Jake Bauers 1B.2662686.873
4William Contreras C.2701894.758
5Garrett Mitchell CF.2621165.770
6Christian Yelich DH.2351259.693
7Sal Frelick RF.230440.614
8Cooper Pratt SS.281334.718
9David Hamilton 3B.245426.650
SD (home)
Projected · most recent complete lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Fernando Tatis Jr. RF.2892583.828
2Dustin Harris LF.293019.736
3Manny Machado 3B.2173091.710
4Ty France 1B.2952172.865
5Jackson Merrill CF.2542687.743
6Gavin Sheets DH.2121748.710
7Xander Bogaerts SS.2311357.676
8Luis Campusano C.265830.796
9Jake Cronenworth 2B.225741.629