Model projections, compared against the market

Tonight's Slate

October 1, 2026 — projected margins and win probabilities for every game, checked against DraftKings, Polymarket, and Kalshi. Updated Oct 1, 12:37 AM CT.
1Games
0Strong leans
0Moderate leans
1Toss-ups
7:00 PM CT
NL Wild Card 'A' Game 3
Truist Park
Philadelphia Phillies
88-74
TBD
—
@
Atlanta Braves
94-68
TBD
—
Projected margin
ATL -0.1 · PHI +0.1
Model fair odds
PHI +110 · ATL -110
Model Suggests Lean · 52.4%
Moneyline (Kalshi): Atlanta Braves (KA -102) — model 52.4% vs. devigged market 50.5% (+1.9pp edge)
Model vs. Market DraftKings, Polymarket, Kalshi · current line
Model fairDraftKingsPolymarketKalshi
PHI ML+110 -118 +102 +102
ATL ML-110 -102 -102 -102
ATL +1.5-166-174——
First 5 innings Kalshi · current line · devigged · model projects ATL +0.2 thru 5
ModelModel fairKalshiKalshi oddsEdge
PHI leads37.5%+16747.2%+112-9.7pp
Tied16.4%+51017.1%+485-0.7pp
ATL leads46.1%+11735.7%+180+10.4pp
80°F wind 5 mph
PHI Projected ATL Projected

Why the Braves. The Braves starter's arsenal plays well against how this Phillies lineup has handled similar pitch mixes. The late innings tilt toward the Braves, whose available relievers carry a 2.94 ERA against 3.72 for the Phillies.

The case for the Phillies. The Phillies bring the deeper lineup — tonight's nine average a .739 OPS against .706 for the Braves. The Phillies come in playing the better recent baseball, on both sides of the ball.

Notes. Philadelphia Phillies note — Alec Bohm: Bohm went 2-for-4 with a walk and a solo home run during Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series against Atlanta on Wednesday. Atlanta Braves note — Tyler Mahle: Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said after Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series against the Phillies on Wednesday that Mahle suffered an abdominal injury while warming up and nearly didn't start as scheduled, Grant McAuley... Bryce Harper is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .175 — .229 wOBA vs. a .395 season mark. Alec Bohm is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .216 — .283 wOBA vs. a .353 season mark. Matt Olson is running cold over his last 10 games, batting .243 — .284 wOBA vs. a .393 season mark.

PHI PHI PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 1, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PNot postedCJ.T.Realmuto1BBryceHarper2BBrysonStott3BAlecBohmSSTreaTurnerLFBryan De LaCruzCFNot postedRFDerekHill PHI @ ATL / Oct 1, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
7 of 9 positions confirmed
ATL ATL ATLANTA BRAVES — STARTING LINEUP & FIELD POSITIONS — Oct 1, 2026 ✦ ✦ ✦ PNot postedCDrakeBaldwin1BMattOlson2BOzzieAlbies3BAustinRileySSMauricioDubónLFMikeYastrzemskiCFMichaelHarris IIRFRonaldAcuña Jr. PHI @ ATL / Oct 1, 2026 ● position filled from today’s posted lineup · — not posted
8 of 9 positions confirmed
PHI bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
Tim Mayza3.481.13646006d ago
Chase Shugart4.021.17594605d ago
José Alvarado5.861.65706815d ago
Jonathan Bowlan3.361.037359214d ago
Alex McFarlane2.841.16201904d ago
Tanner Banks6.191.84383205d ago
Jhoan Duran1.820.998461334d ago
Aaron Nola4.671.351773305d ago
Andrew Painter5.401.411152507d ago
Cristopher Sánchez2.911.202313306d ago
Jesús Luzardo2.861.072213004d ago
Zack Wheeler3.001.051932804d ago
ATL bullpen
PitcherERAWHIPSOGSVLast pitched
Robert Suarez1.060.88263345d ago
Dylan Dodd2.540.91534825d ago
Victor Mederos3.411.19343015d ago
Dylan Lee3.090.97777105d ago
Didier Fuentes2.451.10925836d ago
Raisel Iglesias2.551.086459345d ago
Grant Holmes3.441.311153106d ago
Brent Suter3.361.22785405d ago
Ray Kerr1.470.6011906d ago
Tyler Mahle3.991.231372707d ago
Chris Sale2.160.982002708d ago
PHI (away)
Projected · most recent complete lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Trea Turner SS.2421958.675
2Kyle Schwarber DH.2324597.857
3Bryce Harper 1B.2692987.865
4Alec Bohm 3B.2491588.698
5Derek Hill RF.2411131.733
6Bryan De La Cruz LF.280212.762
7Bryson Stott 2B.2561067.735
8Edmundo Sosa 3B.247944.712
9J.T. Realmuto C.2051151.614
ATL (home)
Projected · most recent complete lineup
BatterAVGHRRBIOPS
1Drake Baldwin C.2842579.817
2Ronald Acuña Jr. RF.2552055.796
3Matt Olson 1B.2514193.823
4Mauricio Dubón SS.2761273.720
5Michael Harris II CF.2942687.812
6Ozzie Albies 2B.2372273.685
7Austin Riley 3B.2191972.654
8Mike Yastrzemski LF.2241241.689
9Ha-Seong Kim SS.11609.359